May 1, 2008
Biofuels: the Good, the Bad and the Unusual
by Ralph Sims, International Energy Agency
Within recent months biofuels have gone from making headline news as being
the world's salvation for when the oil runs out to becoming a "crime against
humanity." Almost every day the world's media run a story on the topic,
often blaming biofuels for all the world's pending disasters. Even a recent
spike in the price of rice was blamed on producing more biofuels whereas, in
fact, rice is not used as a feedstock at all!
There are legitimate concerns about the sustainability of some biofuel
sources and they have taken a lot of criticism. But it is important to put
this in perspective, since, as is often the case, the truth probably lies
somewhere in between the extreme viewpoints. If only the oil market was
scrutinized to the same degree!
There is no doubt there are "bad" biofuels that result in the world being
worse off as a result of their production. But there are also "good"
biofuels that can be produced in a sustainable manner, support local
development without exploitation, and result in a reduction of overall
environmental impacts including greenhouse gas emission reductions.
Concerns at the amount of misinformation appearing in the media being picked
up by policy-makers, coupled with a vision that biofuels produced in
developing countries (the South) could in fact provide considerable local
benefits relating to sustainable development, as well possibly providing
export potential to developed countries (the North), led Professor John
Mathews of Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia to take action.
He solicited 17 people with key interests in biofuels from a wide range of
international, national, industrial and academic organizations to meet
together to discuss the topic in depth and to agree, by consensus, on a
brief document. This document could then be used internationally by policy
makers, environmental groups, project developers, energy companies and
investors to obtain a balanced view of the issues, the relevant problems and
the potential benefits from using both first and second generation biofuels.
He persuaded the Rockefeller Foundation to support the activity by
sponsoring the meeting, which was then held over a 5-day period in their
Conference Centre in Bellagio, Italy.
His next step was somewhat less impressive in that, on the way to Bellagio,
he very unfortunately became indisposed and was unable to attend the meeting
at all. But thankfully he has now bounced back to full health and is
actively pursuing the cause once again - backed up by the Sustainable
Biofuels Consensus document completed in his absence.
The Issues
It is true that the increased production of biofuels has distorted some
commodity prices and therefore contributed to recent price increases in
grains and vegetable oils. However other factors, such as recent droughts,
low food stocks and surging demand for meat and milk products in Asia, have
probably played a far greater role. The higher world energy prices have also
pushed up the costs of food-crop production (including fertilizers),
processing and distribution. But in the media, biofuels tend to take the
full brunt of the criticism for all of these woes.
Biofuels presently account for less than 2% of liquid transport fuels and
take up well below 1% of world agricultural land. This may seem like a small
share, but at over 1 million barrels of oil per day equivalent, they have
contributed to meet around 30% of the growth in global demand in liquid
transport fuels over the past three years and thus made a significant
contribution to the balance of the oil market.
It is easy for politicians to over-promote biofuels, given that their
constituencies like the concept of simply substituting petroleum products
with another type of liquid fuel without having to buy a smaller car or
change their driving habits. However the high national costs of various
agricultural subsidies necessary to support biofuels in the North, have
largely been ignored in the debate. Also for some biofuels, greenhouse gas
emission reduction is not always as good as was commonly thought, when
demonstrated using complete life cycle analyses. Land use change and
deforestation, additional water use, genetic modification, increased
fertiliser and chemical inputs, all raise questions as to the longer term
sustainability of energy crop production. Interestingly, the same arguments
are rarely equally used for increased food production, as exemplified by
only around 10% of palm oil being used for biodiesel and the rest for
cooking oil.
Potential Solutions
In some tropical/sub-tropical regions of the South where arable land for
sugarcane production is available (from improved land management rather than
from deforestation), local development opportunities should not be
discounted. If biofuels can be produced in a sustainable way, and be
certified as such according to an agreed international standard currently
being debated, then they can offer valuable economic opportunities,
particularly to developing countries. Trade, equity, sustainable development
and energy security are all related issues.
In the longer term second generation biofuels from ligno-cellulosic,
non-food feedstocks (straw, woody biomass residues, vegetative grasses) hold
promise and should address most of the current concerns but they remain
relatively costly options, even after 35+ years of RD&D. Several
demonstration projects are under way and major deployment of commercially
viable second generation biofuels may be just a few years off.
The aim should be to progressively phase out subsidy systems for the less
sustainable biofuels and focus on incentives to bring forward second
generation production of both ethanol and synthetic diesel as well perhaps a
"third generation" from algae and using advanced bio-technoloiges. Recent
increases in public and private research investment, including by the
biotechnology industry may help to reduce the production costs.
Development of flex-fuel vehicle engines that run on low- or high-level
blends of ethanol or gasoline, has been a major step forward to support the
increased uptake of biofuels. With over 6 million such vehicles already
running on the roads of Brazil, the U.S., Sweden and elsewhere, and more
auto manufacturers showing interest, demand is likely to continue. Plug-in
hybrid, flex-fuel engine vehicles may be the way of the future.
However one key point to note is that energy-efficiency measures to reduce
road transport demand must still be encouraged.
Summary
Overall the Sustainable Biofuels Consensus highlights the opportunities that
sustainably produced biofuels could bring if managed carefully. South to
South collaborations (as for example Brazil recently announcing a major
investment in sugarcane production and ethanol processing in Ghana) can
provide positive benefits to all parties. Coupled with the current push to
provide improved crop species, better knowledge of fertiliser use and water
management for food crop production, it could be that well managed and
sustainably produced biofuels, although certainly not a panacea for rising
oil demand, could make some contribution towards sustainable development,
energy security, equity and greenhouse gas abatement.
Click here to download the 8-page Sustainable Biofuels Consensus.
Ralph Sims is Professor of Sustainable Energy at Massey University, New
Zealand where he began his research career producing biodiesel from animal
fats in the early 1970s. He is currently based at the Renewable Energy Unit
of the International Energy Agency, Paris. He was the Coordinating Lead
Author of the "Energy Supply" chapter of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report and
is a Companion of the Royal Society. His many publications on energy and
climate change mitigation include the book "The Brilliance of Bioenergy - in
Business and in Practice."
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