Blackouts feared for Md.: Shortages by 2011 a
risk if new lines aren't built, PSC is told
May 22 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Paul Adams The Baltimore Sun
Parts of Maryland are still at risk for isolated blackouts as early as 2011
unless new transmission lines are built to get energy to where it's needed
most, regional grid operator PJM Interconnection told state utility
regulators yesterday.
The latest assessment comes despite significant progress by power generators
and utilities toward addressing the region's growing energy needs through a
combination of power plant upgrades and conservation measures aimed at
cutting demand. Though the risk has diminished some since a similar
assessment last fall, whether the lights stay on after 2011 may hinge on a
critical multistate power line proposed by Allegheny Energy.
The line must win regulatory approval from states including West Virginia,
Virginia and Pennsylvania. Even then it faces expected court challenges from
environmentalists and homeowners who don't want to see the line cross
sensitive areas. Allegheny says it is on track, but some industry analysts
are skeptical the project can get done in time, noting that past power line
projects have sometimes taken at least twice as long to complete.
Steven B. Larsen, chairman of the state Public Service Commission, said
commissioners must weigh those risks as they decide whether to partially
reregulate the power industry and take other steps to ensure reliability.
Among other things, the commission is studying whether to require Maryland
utilities to enter into long-term contracts for new generation, which some
consumer advocates believe is preferable to leaving it up to the competitive
market.
The moves are part of the PSC's efforts to try to lower utility rates, which
starting in June will be about 85 percent higher than they were before
deregulation legislation was passed in 1999. Rates are rising along with
demand, which Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. estimates will grow an average
of 1.6 percent annually between now and 2015.
Without the Allegheny line, PJM says, it will take other short-term upgrades
to existing infrastructure, or a combination of new generation to alleviate
pressures to the grid serving Maryland. PJM, which operates the power grid
for Maryland and 12 other states, and utility executives briefed the PSC on
their projections for power demand yesterday.
"It would require everything going right for us to get through those
summers," said Michael J. Kormos, senior vice president of reliability
services for PJM. "I'm still very concerned for the next couple of years."
Allegheny says the line will be done in time, and PJM has used that
assessment and its own analysis to conclude that the grid is unlikely to
face a crisis after 2011.
The $1.3 billion power line would stretch from southwestern Pennsylvania,
across West Virginia to Loudoun County, Va. It would bring mostly low-cost,
coal-fired generation to the region that otherwise can't get in because of
congestion over existing power lines. It is one of several new high-capacity
power lines proposed in recent years to address a projected energy shortfall
in the Mid-Atlantic.
William B. Pino, director of electric supply for BGE, agreed the multistate
line is key to stabilizing the grid in years to come. If it gets built,
worries about a power shortfall disappear, he said.
"If the line does not come in in a timely fashion, then PJM and all the
utilities will have some work cut out for them to figure out what is the
alternative solution," he said.
PJM's Kormos painted a more dire picture for state utility regulators at a
public hearing in October, when he said parts of Maryland could see
significant power outages if the Allegheny project and other power lines
were not completed.
"This is not simply just a hot summer day problem," he told Larsen, in
response to a question about the risk of overloading power lines. "This
would be any day that it's a little hot."
Kormos' concerns were based on a worst-case scenario, but reflect PJM's
concern for maintaining adequate power reserves to handle peak demand.
Since last fall, those concerns have eased somewhat because utilities in the
PJM area have pledged to upgrade existing power generators or build new
plants to meet growing demand in the region. In addition, BGE and other
Maryland utilities have launched programs that reward customers with rebates
for using less power during hot summer afternoons, potentially eliminating
the need for several new power plants. For instance, BGE has projected it
could cut its projected peak power needs 22 percent by 2011 through such
programs, known as "demand response."
The added megawatts were bid into recent PJM auctions for new capacity,
which are designed to spur construction of new power plants and increase
reliability in the grid.
The most recent auction was for generation pledged to be in service from
June 2011 to May 2012. The results exceeded expectations, drawing a net
increase of 4,238 megawatts throughout PJM. PJM said the megawatts bid into
the system exceeded demand and were evidence the market is working to
resolve any shortfalls. One megawatt is roughly enough to power 1,000 homes.
A significant portion of the new megawatts bid into auction by BGE and other
Maryland utilities came in the form of demand response, rather than from new
or upgraded power plants.
p aul.adams@baltsun.com |