May 7 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - S. Heather Duncan The Macon Telegraph, Ga.

Scientists and policy experts at the first ever Georgia Climate Change Summit on Tuesday forecast more severe storms, droughts, floods and less Georgia coastline.

The biggest challenge in dealing with this onslaught, experts say, is building the political will to try and do something about it.

Georgia is one of only 12 states that isn't at least developing an action plan for climate change, similar to the recently completed state water and energy plans. Georgia Tech, which hosted the conference, is hoping to kick-start conversations about creating that kind of policy framework. It could be used to help the state make more cohesive decisions about everything from water use to permitting new coal-fired power plants, said Michael Chang, Georgia Tech researcher and conference organizer.

Environmental advocates at the conference repeatedly questioned proposals for two new coal-fired plants, which release large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. One of the two would be located in Washington County and would supply many Middle Georgia power customers.

But the event drew people from many interest groups, ranging from the British Consulate to the Episcopal Diocese of Atlanta. Presenters from industry and government discussed how global warming is most likely to affect Georgians' health, pocketbooks and jobs.

Global warming is caused by an increase in "greenhouse gases," such as carbon dioxide, which hold heat in the earth's atmosphere.

"There will be significant health effects for us and our families from climate change," said Dr. Jeremy Hess of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among them: increased heat-related illness and death, malnutrition, and respiratory diseases from worsening ozone and wildfires as temperatures rise.

Hess said Georgia's hotspots for the health affects of climate change include cities, coastal areas and the historically driest area of the state, which is centered in the Montgomery/Treutlen county areas of Middle Georgia.

Hess warned that the nutritional value of crops may also change in response to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

University of Georgia professor Marshall Shepherd said recent spiking food prices are caused partly by climate change, as crops such as corn and sugar are diverted from the food supply to supply demand for cleaner-burning fuels such as ethanol.

Some conference participants noted that Georgia legislators holding hearings about global warming in the last year continue to express skepticism about whether it's real. Shepherd said some point out Georgia's cooling trend over the last century as their trump card.

State climatologist David Stooksbury said Georgia temperatures have cooled slightly, probably because of the replacement of vast swaths of farmland with trees. Despite the state's current drought, which started in March 2006 and set records for modern times, the number and intensity of droughts have not increased either, he said.

But regional variations don't change the overall pattern, and there's no guarantee Georgia's cooling trend will continue, Shepherd noted.

Shepherd, who served on the International Panel for Climate Change, said that panel of more than 2,000 scientists projected a mean increase of 2 to 4 degrees in Georgia's temperatures during the next century.

That's not much on the average day. But extreme temperatures are likely to get more extreme. For example, he said by 2100, "We could expect a fairly common occurrence of days over 100 degrees in Georgia."

Georgia also is likely to see more damage from hurricanes, said Shepherd and Peter Webster, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Georgia Tech. A few degrees global temperature difference changes convections over the ocean, increasing storm intensity.

Georgia's coast faces a higher risk from these storms due to the shallow Continental Shelf jutting out underwater from the coast, which creates a potential for larger-than-average storm surges of the kind that made Hurricane Katrina especially devastating for the Gulf Coast, Webster said.

And even hurricanes that make landfall from the Gulf Coast are expected to have more intense effects as they cross Georgia in the form of tropical storms, generating more tornadoes and flooding due to global warming.

The Atlantic Ocean is also the only area where cyclones are expected to increase not only in intensity but also frequency, Webster said.

Panelists did not agree on the best way for Georgia to address climate change, but energy production was a focus.

"The climate change problem is an energy problem," said Marilyn Brown, Georgia Tech public policy professor, saying that 88 percent of greenhouse gas emissions are energy-related.

Danny Herrin, manager of climate and environmental strategies at Southern Company, said the company is researching new technology related to sequestering the carbon dioxide created when burning coal, perhaps injecting it underground instead of releasing it into the atmosphere.

Southern Company is the parent of Georgia Company, which owns the coal-fired Plant Scherer outside Macon. The company has chosen to upgrade rather than replace the plant ever since the Clean Air Act was passed. Scherer remains one of the biggest carbon-dioxide emitters in the country.

Herrin predicted that if the toughest proposed environmental restrictions pass Congress, there will be a short-term spike in the amount of energy generated by current coal technology. At first, his presentation indicated that less restrictive legislation would result in the company's replacement of older, dirtier coal plants with newer ones using carbon sequestration. Upon further questioning, he said the company would probably not retire all its older plants.

Georgia is more reliant on coal for energy than the nation as a whole or surrounding states.

Brown said Georgia could cut its energy use significantly by using it more efficiently at little cost -- and, in many cases, considerable savings. But she said Southern Company has no incentive to help customers conserve because the more power they use, the more money the company earns.

Chris Clark, executive director of the Georgia Environmental Facilities Authority, said conservation and cleaner energy sources like wind and sun power can't meet the state's growing energy needs, and more coal-fired power plants remain necessary. He agreed with British Consulate and industry officials, however, that more incentives are needed for solar-powered or otherwise sustainable buildings and plants.

To contact writer S, Heather Duncan, call 744-4225.