London (Platts)--13May2008

World oil production fell by 400,000 b/d last month to an average of 86.8
million b/d, partly due to lower OPEC volumes and partly to
weaker-than-expected non-OPEC supply, the International Energy Agency said
Tuesday.

In its latest monthly oil market report, the Paris-based IEA trimmed its
estimates of non-OPEC supply in 2008, but said it still expected a sizeable
rise in production during the fourth quarter of the year.

In April, non-OPEC supply fell by 135,000 b/d to 49.96 million b/d, the
IEA said, and has been running 200,000-250,000 b/d below original expectations
since February.

The IEA cut its estimate of average non-OPEC supply for 2008 to 50.36
million b/d, down 140,000 b/d from its previous report. This would leave
year-on-year growth at 680,000 b/d, up from 550,000 b/d in 2007.

The IEA expects volumes to rise to 51.48 million b/d in the fourth
quarter, but until then output is likely to remain largely flat at close to 50
million b/d.

Production from leading non-OPEC producer Russia is expected to remain
flat in 2008 at around 10.1 million b/d, the IEA said, after increases of more
than 200,000 b/d in each of the last three years and even higher growth rates
in the early part of this decade.

OPEC crude supply also fell in April to an estimated 31.87 million b/d,
the IEA said, down from 32.13 million b/d the previous month.

Much of the decline was due to a fall in production due to a strike in
Nigeria, whose output slipped to 1.86 million b/d from 2.01 million b/d in
March, the IEA report said.

As a result of downward revisions to its demand estimates, the IEA cut
its projected 'call' on OPEC crude in 2008 by 200,000 b/d to leave it at 31.3
million b/d.

The call on OPEC is expected to fall from 31.7 million b/d in the first
quarter of the year to 31.2 million b/d in the second, remaining at that level
in the third quarter before falling slightly to 31 million b/d in the last
three months of this year, the IEA said.