IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 993 (S29E27)
emerged on the disk during the period as a small, simple Bxo Beta
group. The region has a new cycle magnetic configuration and
appears to be growing slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, remain elevated at
about 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods all three days of the forecast period (05-07
May) due to the high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 068
Predicted 05 May-07 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 008/008-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales