IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There have been several
low-level flares observed during the period. The most probable
source is an active region located just behind the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from
the new active region making its way onto the solar disk from behind
the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on day one (13 May)
of the period due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Predominately quiet levels are expected to return for
days two and three (14-15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 068
Predicted 13 May-15 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/11/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales