IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 994 (S12W36) and
996 (N09E18) have not produced any flare activity this period. Both
regions have a Bxo Beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
observations from the Ace Spacecraft have shown a steady increase in
velocity from around 340 km/s to 400 km/s in the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm conditions at
high latitudes on day one (20 May). Activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three ( 21 - 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069
Predicted 20 May-22 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 19 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 020/030-010/015-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales