Crude futures trade lower as sentiment remains bearish



London (Platts)--14Nov2008

Global crude futures were trading lower Friday as bearish sentiment
continues to impact the oil complex, sources said.

At 1114 GMT, the new front-month ICE Brent contract traded at
$55.78/barrel, a 46-cent fall. The December NYMEX WTI contract also traded
lower, down 25 cents to $57.99/b.

"People are tidying up their books this morning--there's no real volume
at the moment. The sentiment remains bearish. If I were in the market right
now, I'd be a seller," a London-based broker said.

"The market is still range-trading at the moment, however, I'd expect to
see a fall below the $50/b marker," he added.

However, other participants are anticipating a move to the upside,
following Thursday evening's equity-led crude futures rally.

"We could see a slightly stronger tone to the crude markets over the
course of Friday session, providing, of course, that the US equity rally does
not fizzle," energy analyst Edward Meir said in a report.

"Thursday's equity move was a bounce off the trading range low, and thus
more technical in nature. This does not bode well for its longevity, and so
absent any major fundamental news, the selling in equities could very well
resume by early next week and impact commodities in the process," he added.

The US Energy Information Administration released Thursday a relatively
neutral set of data, with crudes stocks unchanged for a second week running.
The demand data continued to paint a bleak picture with total product demand
down 6.6% over the same four-week period one year ago.

The focus will now turn to the G20 meeting scheduled this weekend, as
world leaders will attempt to craft a joint strategy to tackle the worst
financial crisis in decades and thwart a deep global recession.

"Whilst this will be certainly appreciated we must not deflect away from
'how can we cure the patient, and not just care for it,'" said Robert Laughlin
of MF Global.

"It'll be a long meeting with little firm outcome. Remember Mr Obama will
not be present so no long-term fix can be approved!" Laughlin added.

"The leaders attending this weekend's meeting agree on a clear purpose:
To address the current crisis, and to lay the foundation for reforms that will
help prevent a similar crisis in the future," US President George W. Bush said
Thursday.
Another focus is the OPEC meeting set for November 29 in Cairo.

"With respect to the OPEC meeting, we believe the cartel is behind the
curve in terms of calibrating supply and demand, and so a likely 1 million b/d
cut will go a long way in redressing this imbalance," energy analyst Edward
Meir added.

In the currency markets, the dollar continued to remain strong over the
pound, trading around 1.48 for most of the morning. The ICE dollar index
meanwhile traded at 86.816, slightly down from Thursday's settle.

In the product markets, front-month RBOB and heating oil were marginally
down relative to Thursday's settle, trading at $1.2755/gal and $1.8605/gal,
respectively.
--George Johnson, george_johnson@platts.com