PARIS, FRANCE, November 17, 2008.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO-2008) warns of dire consequences of an inadequate response to the climate crisis, and calls for a radical retooling of the global energy system.
“We cannot let the financial and economic crisis delay the policy action that is urgently needed to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail rising emissions of greenhouse gases. We must usher in a global energy revolution by improving energy efficiency and increasing the deployment of low-carbon energy,” says Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of IEA.
In the WEO-2008 Reference Scenario, which assumes no new government policies, world primary energy demand grows by 1.6% per year on average between 2006 and 2030 – an increase of 45%. This is slower than projected last year, mainly due to the impact of the economic slowdown, prospects for higher energy prices and some new policy initiatives.
Demand for oil and coal will continue to rise, but modern renewables grow most rapidly, overtaking gas to become the second-largest source of electricity soon after 2010.
According to the WEO-2008, oil will remain the world’s main source of energy for many years to come, even under the most optimistic of assumptions about the development of alternative technology. This scenario could result in a 6°C rise in global temperatures.
Tackling challenges
Stabilising greenhouse gas concentration at 550 ppm of CO2-equivalent, which would limit the temperature increase to about 3°C, would require emissions to rise to no more than 33 Gt in 2030 and to fall in the longer term.
The share of low-carbon energy – hydropower, nuclear, biomass, other renewables and fossil-fuel power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) – in the world primary energy mix would need to expand from 19% in 2006 to 26% in 2030.
The scale of the challenge in limiting greenhouse gas concentration to 450 ppm of CO2-eq, which would involve a temperature rise of about 2°C, is much greater. World energy-related CO2 emissions would need to drop sharply from 2020 onwards, reaching less than 26 Gt in 2030.
Achieving such an outcome would require even faster growth in the use of low-carbon energy – to account for 36% of global primary energy mix by 2030.
However, IEA says these scenarios will not lower oil demand: “Even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production will need to be 12 mb/d higher in 2030 than today.” Mr. Tanaka says.
Industry responses
“The World Energy Outlook places wind power firmly in the mainstream energy sector for the first time,” says Arthouros Zervos, Chairman of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). “However, as an industry we believe that the IEA is still a bit too conservative.”
The wind industry expects that installed wind could rise to more than 1,000 GW, producing over 2,600 TWh of electricity every year by 2020. Wind energy could thus satisfy around 12% of the world’s electricity needs in 2020, according to GWEC’s recent ‘Global Wind Energy Outlook 2008’. These numbers could rise to 2,300 GW installed capacity, producing 5,400 TWh annually by 2030.
IEA underestimates RE
Stefan Gsänger, World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) Secretary General, comments: "Although the IEA report calls for a global energy revolution, it still underestimates the contribution that renewable energy can deliver. We regret that the IEA still does not fully realise the actual dynamics and economics of renewable energy.”
Independent studies like the Renewable Energy Outlook 2030, recently released by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), have demonstrated that renewable energy can contribute the lion's share of power supply in the mid-term future - more than 60 % is possible by the year 2030, given that the right policies are in place.
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