London (Platts)--17Nov2008

OPEC Monday cut its estimates of world oil demand in 2008 and 2009 as
global economic turmoil continues to have a negative impact on consumption.

In its latest monthly oil market report, OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat
said it now expected oil demand to rise by 490,000 b/d in 2009, down from a
previous estimate of 760,000 b/d.

In outright terms, OPEC cut its estimate of world oil demand in 2008 by
260,000 b/d to 86.19 million b/d, and reduced the same figure for 2009 by
530,000 b/d to 86.68 million b/d.

Demand growth next year is expected to be largely confined to China and
the Middle East, with consumption in the developed countries making up the
OECD falling to 47.42 million b/d from this year's expected average of 48.01
million b/d.

"The downbeat economic forecasts have darkened the outlook for oil demand
substantially," the OPEC report said.

"The global economy is slowing down faster than expected, which is being
reflected in downward revisions of forecasts for economic growth for the rest
of 2008 and for 2009," OPEC said.

"It is almost certain that the major OECD countries are now in a
synchronized recessionary phase and the rest of the world is being affected to
a greater degree than previously anticipated."

The reduction in demand estimates had a knock-on impact on OPEC's
estimate of demand for crude from its members, known as the call on OPEC.

The report showed a cut in the call on OPEC in 2009 to 30.92 million b/d,
220,000 b/d less than previously estimated.

For the fourth quarter of this year, the call on OPEC crude has been cut
to 32.07 million b/d, down 290,000 b/d from the previous monthly report.

On the supply side, OPEC cut its estimate of non-OPEC oil production next
year to 50.39 million b/d, down 310,000 b/d from its previous estimate.

The downward revision stemmed from revised estimates for countries
including the US, Mexico, Australia, Malaysia, Brazil, Russia and Kazakhstan.

OPEC's latest estimate of non-OPEC supply next year implies year-on-year
growth of 740,000 b/d.