Nov 13 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Matt Nauman San Jose Mercury News, Calif.

Global warming will have a broad and devastating impact on California's economy over the next century, a report released today says.

Up to $2.5 trillion of the state's $4 trillion in real estate assets -- homes and other buildings -- are at risk from rising sea levels, wildfires and other extreme weather events occurring as the world gets warmer, according to a report by University of California, Berkeley, agricultural and resource economics professors David Roland-Holst and Fredrich Kahrl.

The 127-page report was funded by the non-profit Next 10 foundation that studies California's future and the intersection of the economy and the environment.

It is believed to be the first time an academic institution has attempted to put a price tag on the potential climate damage in California between now and the year 2100. Roland-Holst characterized as a Golden State version of 2006's "Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," a look at the impact of global warming on the world's economy and the most well-regarded study of its type.

In an interview, Roland-Holst said that despite the staggering numbers, he didn't want his research to be seen as a doomsday report.

"It's not chicken little. It is a wake-up call," he said. "The estimates at the moment have a lot of uncertainty, but we really have to take this seriously."

Roland-Holst and Kahrl offered forecasts on the impacts of global warming on seven business sectors

in California.

--Water: An estimated $5 billion in assets are at risk, and costs could reach $600 million a year in what the researcher calls the "high-warming scenario."

--Energy: $21 billion in assets at risk, with annual damage ranging from $2.7 billion to $6.3 billion. Potential impacts could include less hydropower due to less rainfall; more hot days requiring greater use of air conditioning; and more winter storms causing more power outages.

--Transportation: $500 billion at risk to ports, airports, roads and bridges.

--Tourism and recreation: $98 billion in assets are at risk, with annual damage ranging from $200 million to $7.5 billion. "In the highest warming scenario, California's ski industry collapses," Roland-Holst writes. Beaches, golf courses and state and national parks, will be impacted, too. And while the number of days when golfers can hit the links might actually increase due to global warming, the hotter days will scorch the golf courses.

--Real estate and insurance: $2.5 trillion in assets are at risk, and water damage could cost $1.4 billion a year, while fire damage could result in $2.5 billion in damages.

--Agriculture, forests and fisheries: $113 billion in assets are at risk, with annual damage ranging from $300 million to $4.3 billion.

--Public health: Annual costs due to atmospheric changes range from $3.8 billion to $24 billion a year.

"Our estimates indicate that climate risk -- damages if no action is taken -- would include tens of billions per year in direct costs, even higher indirect costs, and expose trillions of dollars of assets to collateral risk," the researcher wrote in their executive summary.

"The most expensive thing we can do about climate change is nothing," Roland-Holst said. "We can ignore change that is already happening, or we can turn the threat of climate damage into a dynamic opportunity for change, renewal and growth."

The researcher described California's landmark climate-change law, AB 32, as "a positive model ... but only a beginning." The implementation plan for AB 32 faces final approval from the state's Air Resource Board in December. He noted that AB 32 is about mitigation, or reducing the risk of climate change. His research was a call for adaptation, he said, or reducing the damages that will result from climate change.

Among the researchers' recommendations are more efficient water allocation in the state; greater promotion of renewable energy technologies; greater investments in the state's natural landmarks and recreation areas; and a study of climate change and public health, particularly as it relates to the elderly and low-income residents.

Something on the scale of the New Deal during the Great Depression, the Marshall Plan after the destruction of Europe in World War II or the Space Race will be required to reverse climate change, the researchers said.

"We didn't wait for the Bay Bridge to fall down to build a new one," Roland-Holst said. "It was a response to a certain perceived risk. We know earthquakes are coming, and the cost of early action is much less than later action."

Climate change isn't like an asteroid striking Earth, he said, but more like a distant threat that can be avoided by immediately starting to steer the supertanker in a different direction.

California ASSETS AT RISK

FROM CLIMATE CHANGE

Researchers at University of California, Berkeley, have identified seven segments of the California economy that will suffer seriously from climate change over the current century. Here are their estimates of the damage.

Water: $5 billion

Energy: $21 billion

Tourism and recreation: $98 billion

Real estate and insurance: $2.5 trillion

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries: $113 billion

Transportation: $500 billion

Source: California Climate Risk and Response

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