Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2008 Nov 06 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was

stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were

numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance

for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due

to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected

to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A

further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3

(09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Nov 069

Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070

90 Day Mean 06 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 000/000

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/030-010/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 50/30/10

Minor storm 35/10/01

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/35/15

Minor storm 50/15/05

Major-severe storm 20/05/01