IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 1008
(N33E01) emerged on the disk today and managed to produce today's
only event, a B3 x-ray flare at 2031Z. The group is a small (40
millionths), fairly simple D-type sunspot group although there is
some weak polarity mixing in the trailer part of the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days (11-13 November).
There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
1008 if it continues to emerge.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
ACE solar wind data showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity
during the past 24 hours with day-end values around 400 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 November).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 069
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales