IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
Region 1005 (N26W29) was quiet and stable during the period. Region
1006 (S27W63) was numbered today and is an alpha magnetic
configuration. This region exhibits New Cycle 24 magnetic polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet all three days of the forecast period
(17 - 19 October).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 072
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales