India’s growth in power generation since its Independence has been noteworthy making India the third largest producer of electricity in Asia. The country presently has installed capacity of 144,912.97 MW consisting of thermal 92,564.64 MW (coal 76,648.88 MW, gas 14,716.01MW, oil 1,199.75 MW), hydro 36,033.76 MW, nuclear 4,120.00 MW and renewable 12,194.57 MW as on June 30,2008.The over all generation in India has increased from 301 billion units (BUs) during 1992-93 to 704.45 BUs in 2007- 08.

To meet the projected demand in 2011-12, additional capacity of about 78,000 MW is required to be added in the 11th Plan (2007-12). Thermal power generation is expected to continue to dominate in the power generation scenario. Nuclear power generation is also going to get a big push with the Indian Government putting in place an ambitious expansion program.

There has been significant improvement in the growth in actual generation over the last few years. As compared to annual growth rate of about 3.1% at the end of 9th Plan and initial years of 10th Plan, the growth in generation during 2006-07 and 2007-08 was of the order of 7.3% and 6.33% respectively.

The electricity generation target for the year 2008-09 has been fixed at 744.344 BU comprising of 631.270 BU thermal; 118.450 BU hydro; 19.000 BU nuclear; and 5.624 BU import from Bhutan.

Dependency on Oil Imports

India is dangerously dependent on imported fossil fuels, especially, oil. India is the third biggest importer of oil in Asia and seventh biggest in the world behind USA, Japan, China, Germany, South Korea and France. About 76% of India’s requirements are met through imports. This makes India’s economy very vulnerable to the fluctuations in the global oil market.

India imported 121.67 million tons of crude oil in 2007- 08, out of which 73.74 percent came from the Middle East region, according to data available from India’s Petroleum Ministry. The total import of oil stood at 111.5 million tons in 2006-07. India spent Rs. 272,699 crore or $ 67.988 billion on its crude imports in 2007-08, up from Rs. 219,029 crore or $ 48.389 billion in the previous year.

It is no secret that the world is fast running out of petroleum. The total proven reserves are of the order of 168 billion tons. The present annual consumption is about 4 billion tons. Even though there have been some scattered new findings, this estimate shows that the present reserves are not likely to last beyond the middle of this century, if our rate of exploitation continues at the present rate. Natural gas is likely to last another decade or so. That is not going to make much of a difference. There may be dispute about the exact date of exhaustion, but nobody is claiming that fossil fuels will take us into the next century.

Global Warming and Climate Change Threats

An even more serious problem is that even before the fossil fuels run out, their continued burning is going to release enough Carbon Dioxide to cause global warming and trigger a climate change, which will be totally unacceptable to humanity. The consequences will be truly disastrous. Thus, there is tremendous pressure on all the major energy consumers, including India and China, to reduce their fossil energy consumption. India’s stand is that its per capita emission of Carbon dioxide is way below that of the USA or other developed countries, and so India has a long way to go. This could make a sound argument in international negotiations, perhaps. But people in India know very well that most of their carbon emission is caused for the sake of their elites and city folk, whose consumption patterns are fast approaching that of the developed world. They are trying to hide behind the countless poor rural folk, so that the average per capita emission is a misleading piece of statistics. The moral obligation to change India’s energy use pattern is inescapable.

Search for Alternatives

The recent dramatic hike in the global price of petroleum crude and the consequent price crisis in India, have once again helped to focus attention on this serious problem. But unfortunately, the reactions are colored by party politics and electoral priorities. Even though these are unavoidable in a vibrant democracy having more than 1.2 billion population, people have to rise above these transient considerations and try to develop a long-term perspective. The cost of not doing this will be catastrophic. Thus, the search for alternatives assumes serious dimensions, both nationally and internationally.

As far as electricity generation on a large scale is concerned, Wind Electric Generators (Wind Farms) is a viable option, which is currently available, commercially. One can order Wind Machines of 500kW or even 1000kW, almost off the shelf. If located at appropriate sites, they can deliver electric power at rates comparable to that from thermal power plants. But suitable sites are at a premium. India has the potential for generating about 45,000 MW from this source. The present installed capacity is of the order of 7,000 MW. But the big problem with wind energy generation is its variability.

Biomass is another option, which is fairly well established. Even though Biogas plants, employing bio-methanation have been in use for almost a century, large scale electricity generation form biomass is likely to follow the wood gasification route, using biomass gasifiers. Gasifiers of megawatt size are reaching the market now. But they have a long way to go before they can compete with conventional power plants, for supplying electricity. Production of alcohol fuel and bio diesel from agricultural products is a very promising and fast growing technology. Already Brazil has managed to end its dependence on imported petrol, through the use of alcohol derived from cane juice. But the price it has paid for this is an increased encroachment into the Amazon forests.

On the other hand, the USA has relied more on alcohol distilled from corn, for its biofuel program. This has resulted in the diversion of as much as one third of its corn yield, affecting its other uses like animal feed and export as human food grain. This is partly responsible for the current hike in food prices in the global market.

India ranks 6th in terms of consumption of energy, which is 3.5% of the total world’s commercial energy. The current consumption of diesel in India alone is about 40 million tons (40% of the total petroleum product consumption) and has reached 52.32 million tons in 2006-07 as the demand is growing at a rate 5.6% per annum. Whereas, domestic production of crude oil and natural gas remained around 33.97million tons during 2006-07. Hence there will be a huge gap between demand and supply which needs to be met through increasing fuel imports or increasing production of biodiesel through developing biodiesel plantations without sacrificing the food security of the country. Biodiesel is renewable energy resource generated from rehabilitation of waste and degraded lands.

India hopes to avert this danger by relying on jathropha for its biodiesel program. Jathropha grows in arid regions and does not need much water or fertilizer. However, with attractive government subsidies and better profits, as more and more farmers turn to jathropha cultivation, it is bound to have a reflection on the cultivation of other food crops. The point is, there is no solution without a problem!

Solar Energy

Solar energy is hardly a new source. But its direct use for electricity generation is still in infancy. The heat of solar radiation can be concentrated using mirrors and the resulting high temperature can be utilized to produce steam at high temperature and pressure, which in turn can be used to drive prime movers to produce electricity. This is well established, but is yet to become commercially viable. But it is on the threshold of commercial viability. Some utilities in the USA have already placed orders for Solar Thermal Power Plants and they are expected to join the stream shortly.

But the really exciting prospect is direct generation of electricity form sunlight, using Photo Voltaic cells. This also is an old technology, in fact, discovered in early 20th century, and the explanation of which earned Einstein his Nobel Prize. But again the cost has been the limiting factor. The cost of a solar cell which can yield one watt power was about $100 in the sixties. It came down to $20/W in the seventies, thanks to their increased use in the space program. Higher scale of production, coupled with advances in technology brought the price down to $10/W and then $5/W in the eighties. The general expectation was that at this rate, it will soon hit the $1/W mark, at which point it could compete with the conventional sources of electricity. But, somehow, the price of the solar cell got stuck at $3.5/W and refused to come down.

The solar PV programs, so avidly supported by many governments, still depended on the subsidy. But the best technology news that came out last year was, perhaps, the one about the arrival of a new company on the scene, “Nano Solar” which has started supplying solar cells at the magical price of $1/W. The first shipping was to a consumer in Germany. Commercial production has started, although it has to be scaled up significantly, if the enormous world demands are to be met.

Suppose solar panels start being delivered in large quantities at the price of $1/W, and then the energy scenario could change dramatically. The new SPV panels are in the form of thin sheets, with plastic base. They could be unrolled like carpets on roof tops and the power plugged into the household wiring system. Of course we will need storage batteries and 'inverters' to convert the current into 230V AC. But these are all very well available, and not very expensive. An average middle class house can have 'an all solar electric system' with inverters and all, at a cost of about Rs. 200,000 or US $5,000. The only recurring cost will be the replacement of the batteries.

Perhaps, it is too soon to think of dispensing with the central grid supply. It might be more economic and reliable to have the central grid and to have the individual generation units connected to the grid in such a way that we can supply excess power into the system when we please, or draw from it when we need it. In that case, the grid supplier (the State Utility) will have to have a huge energy storage system to tide over the vagaries and variations. Never Ending Source of Clean Energy Sun is a source of light and heat. From these energy sources, we get two distinct technologies: Solar Photo Voltaic technology for generating electricity and Solar Thermal Technology that captures the heat. Solar energy is a vital form of renewable energy that can provide practical solutions in mitigating many of the energy related risks to our economy. The global PhotoVoltaic (PV) scenario is pointing towards a stupendous growth. Solar PV presently accounts for less than 0.5% of global energy situation and a recent report suggests this would grow at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) greater than 40% annually in the next 5 years. An optimistic scenario suggests that by 2015, the global PV business size would be US$ 350 billion. Customized PV solutions can illuminate homes, streets and communities; pump water to thirsty fields and provide reliable and cost-effective solar power to wide-ranging sectors from education and banking to healthcare and telecommunications. The technology does not make use of any moving parts thereby increasing reliability. Since it captures the light of the sun and converts it into electricity, it does not consume any natural resources, like the conventional fossil fuels. And more importantly, it does not generate any harmful gases or chemicals that the conventional systems are plagued with. In short, it produces energy that is clean, green and highly reliable.

The applications are endless and PV technology is all geared up to challenge the conventional thinking. Numerous solar energy projects have already been executed in India that were once thought impractical. These PV solutions are powering some of the most complex applications thereby establishing its performance and reliability.

The solar PV technology has evolved over time and today is able to meet even the most complex energy requirements. It is easy to use and offers convenience like never before. From domestic energy requirements to community requirements, from corporate offices to industrial needs, from road safety applications to green buildings solar PV has demonstrated its performance successfully. It can be commissioned in the remotest parts of India and yet function reliably. And, more importantly, without leaving any carbon footprint.

There’s a perception among many that solar systems are very expensive. In reality one needs to understand the entire life cycle cost to drive home the point. Solar photovoltaic systems for generating electricity need a high initial investment but (more importantly) very low or negligible running cost. A solar module has a life of 25 years and delivers reliable performance throughout its life. But when one looks at alternatives such as Diesel Generators that are dependent on a regular supply of fuel + maintenance + transportation + cost of replacement + noise & smoke pollution, one begins to understand the ‘Total life cycle cost’ of a system and thereby the cost advantage of solar systems.

In case of a solar water heater, a household can completely recover the initial investment in 3 - 4 years time through savings in electricity, after which it can enjoy free hot water for the next many years. In addition to a similar ROI, an industrial water heater enjoys 80% depreciation in the 1st year thereby making it commercially attractive too. Hence solar energy is not only an environment friendly source of energy, but also is commercially viable.

To summarize, solar systems have demonstrated their practicality in every application. The solar modules have a life of 25 years and have high durability. The applications have high reliability and therefore enhances consumer convenience. Being non-polluting throughout their life-cycle, they preserve diversity in nature and culture thus supporting future generations to meet their own needs.

Practically, the energy crisis in India is soluble to some extent. But reaching the broad sunlit uplands in India will mean a drastic mental gear change for policy-makers and consumers alike.

Copyright © 2002-2006, CyberTech, Inc. - All rights reserved.