This new snapshot of refugee trends includes historical data from
1951 to 2007, with a special focus on emerging environmentally
related migration trends. It reveals that:
Since the mid-1980s, people who are forced to leave their home
areas because of environmental disruption have been known as
"environmental refugees." As climate change intensifies, this
international population of refugees is expected to climb far beyond
the 30 million people who are currently counted.
The number of people who are on the move involuntarily worldwide
may be as high as 184 million-roughly equivalent to the entire
population of Brazil, or one out of every 36 persons on Earth.
1
Among them are 16 million refugees (including 4.6 million
Palestinians) and 26 million internally displaced people (IDPs-those
who, unlike refugees, did not cross an international border).
2
(See Figures 1 and 2.) Another 12 million people are
stateless-they are vulnerable because they lack the protection of
citizenship, although they are not necessarily displaced.
3
Some 25 million people have been uprooted by natural disasters.
4
And Christian Aid, a London-based advocacy group, estimates that
as many as 105 million people are made homeless by a variety of
so-called development projects, including dams, mines, roads,
factories, plantations, and wildlife reserves.
5
Because these estimates come from different sources, the total of
184 million needs to be regarded with some caution. This is
especially so because the Christian Aid figure is a rough estimate
and may partially overlap with the other categories.
Environmental and resource pressures are increasingly a driver
of displacement. They also have an impact on the number of
long-term migrants-people who leave voluntarily and live outside
their home country for a year or longer-whose numbers rose from 75
million in 1965 to some 200 million in 2005.6
In relative terms, however, the number of long-term migrants has
remained at roughly 2-3 percent of global population.7
The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has
traditionally been tasked with assisting those who seek refuge
from war and repression. The largest groups of refugees under
UNHCR's care in 2007 were 3 million Afghanis (mostly residing in
Pakistan and Iran) and 2 million Iraqis (mainly in Syria and
Jordan).8
UNHCR also helped Colombians (552,000), Sudanese (523,000), and
Somalis (457,000).9
(A separate agency, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for
Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA, is responsible for
Palestinian refugees, who number 4.6 million.)10
In 2007, Sudan was the country with the highest number of IDPs
(5.8 million), followed by Colombia (up to 4 million), Iraq (2.5
million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1.4 million), and
Uganda (1.3 million).11
According to U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio
Guterres, it will be increasingly difficult to easily categorize
the displaced by separate causes.12
Environmental degradation, for example, is now often seen to be a
factor contributing to both involuntary and voluntary population
movements. But environmental problems are often closely
intertwined with socioeconomic conditions (poverty, inequality of
land ownership, etc.), resource disputes, and poor governance.13
The concept of "environmental refugees" has been discussed
since the mid-1980s, when Essam El-Hinnawi offered the following
definition: "People who have been forced to leave their
traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a
marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by
people) that jeopardized their existence and/or seriously affected
the quality of their life."14
El-Hinnawi has estimated that there are now perhaps 30 million
environmental refugees.15
A projection by environmental researcher Norman Myers that there
could be as many as 250 million such refugees by mid-century has
been widely cited but also has been criticized for some of its
assumptions.16
No one is systematically collecting data on environmentally
driven displacement-in part because there is no generally accepted
definition and methodology. Some analysts argue that the category
of refugees-legally defined as people fleeing persecution without
access to protection by their own country-should not be muddied by
other factors such as environmental degradation.17
Others point to the fact that not everyone uprooted by
environmental change crosses a border-and thus does not
technically become a refugee, but rather an "environmentally
displaced person."18
And there are now also increasing references to "climate
refugees." Climate change will have serious human repercussions-in
the form of sea level rise, more frequent and more devastating
weather events, freshwater shortages, disruption of agricultural
systems, impaired ecosystem services, and health epidemics-that
are bound to force people to relocate.19
Some people may be more aptly described as environmental
migrants-moving, sometimes seasonally or temporarily, before the
"push" of environmental degradation forces them to leave and with
expectations of the "pull" of a better life elsewhere (or the
prospect of being able to send money back home). As climate change
takes center stage, however, it is likely that "push" will
outweigh "pull."20
More than 600 million people live in low-lying coastal zones
worldwide.21
By some projections, at least 160 million people living in such
areas may be at risk of flooding from storm surges by 2010.22
Bangladesh, for instance, is already experiencing growing storm
surges and rising salinity in coastal areas.23
One third of the country could be flooded if the sea rises by one
meter, affecting 20 million of its 140 million people.24
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused 1.5 million people to be
displaced temporarily; some 300,000 may never return to their
former homes.25
Meanwhile, small island states like the Maldives in the Indian
Ocean and Tuvalu in the Pacific face the danger of being entirely
devoured by sea level rise.26
Low-lying, heavily populated deltas similarly face the specter of
inundation.
Arid and semiarid areas cover about 40 percent of Earth's land
surface and are home to more than 2 billion people.27
Desertification processes put an estimated 135 million people
worldwide at risk of being driven from their lands.28
Where people-typically women-already have to walk many kilometers
each day to fetch water, such as in the Sahel, longer journeys are
simply not an option.29
Water shortages could affect anywhere from 75 million to 250
million people in Africa by 2020 and more than 1 billion people in
Asia by 2050.30
The precise nature of environmental change can make a big
difference in terms of displacements. Fast-onset impacts like
floods and storms will affect people in different ways than a
gradual process like drought and desertification or sea level
rise. The severity and frequency of disasters, too, has important
impacts on the habitability and economic viability of affected
areas.
Resilience is a key factor determining whether vulnerability
translates into flight. The poor are typically most exposed to
environmental hazards. Population pressures and social
marginalization often compel them to live in risky places-steep
hillsides likely to be hit by landslides, low-lying areas
susceptible to flooding, or coastal strips whose natural buffers
(wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs) have been stripped away.
And they often have limited capacity to deal with these
challenges, sometimes even lacking the necessary monetary
resources, family networks, or other connections needed to
migrate.31
Adaptation measures can help reduce vulnerability: disaster
and famine early warning systems, livelihood diversification,
drought-resistant crops, restoration of ecosystems, flood-defense
infrastructure, crop insurance, and others. But even in the wake
of floods or storms, well-calibrated emergency and recovery aid
can make the difference between people staying and leaving.
Resilience is also a function of overall economic capacity,
demographic pressures, governance structures, and good leadership,
as well as social and political cohesiveness.32
So far, international funding for adaptation in poorer and more
vulnerable countries is woefully limited.33
Yet timely adaptation-along with mitigation measures to prevent
the worst of climate change-will be much less costly in economic
and human terms than dealing with disasters and displacements.
UNHCR already struggles to provide adequate support for refugees
and internally displaced people, and the same is true for agencies
providing humanitarian aid. They will be overwhelmed if the
large-scale climate-related displacements now predicted indeed
come to pass.