More to Come in Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season
US: September 22, 2008
MIAMI - The 10 tropical storms and hurricanes that ripped through the
Atlantic and Caribbean during this busy hurricane season savaged Haiti, Cuba
and the US Gulf coast, and conditions are now ripe for more.
Residents of the Atlantic-Caribbean danger zone should not let down their
guard, despite a brief lull in the action following Tropical Storm
Josephine's demise two weeks ago and Hurricane Ike's strike on the Texas
coast, experts said.
"Conditions are still favorable for hurricanes. People really need to stay
on their toes," said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster for
the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Forecasters had predicted the season, which runs through Nov. 30, could
produce up to 18 cyclones, and the warm sea temperatures, low wind shear and
other factors that contribute to the formation of hurricanes are still in
place.
Water in the Caribbean and Atlantic is warmer than usual by 0.9 to 2.7
degrees Fahrenheit , Bell said. Hurricanes feed on warm sea water.
Patches of cooler water, drawn from the depths by the passage of powerful
hurricanes like Ike and Gustav, have appeared around Cuba and in the Gulf of
Mexico, but they are not likely to have a big impact on future storms.
Wind shear, which is the difference in wind speeds at different levels of
the atmosphere and which can disrupt nascent hurricanes, is relatively low.
El Nino, the eastern Pacific warm water phenomenon that can dampen Atlantic
storm formation, has not developed. Neutral El Nino conditions are expected
for the rest of the season, experts said.
"Through October 15th I would not let my guard down on the (US) eastern
seaboard at all," AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi said, predicting
another three to five storms.
"Between the 25th (of September) and 15th of October the Caribbean will
light up, but first, something may form off the Carolinas," he said.
TOUGH YEAR
Six consecutive Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes hit the United
States from late July to mid-September, causing billions of dollars in
damage. Four in a row swamped Haiti, killing hundreds of people.
Gustav and Ike crushed Cuba before heading off to the US Gulf Coast, where
they rampaged through oil and gas fields.
At this point, just after the statistical peak of the six-month season,
there is no comparison to 2005, the all-time record-breaker with 28 storms,
when forecasters ran out of storm names and had to resort to the Greek
alphabet. That year spawned Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans.
On Sept. 18 of 2005, Rita formed. It was the 17th storm of the season and
eventually became a 180 mph monster, one of the strongest hurricanes in
history.
But not even in 2005 did six storms in a row hit the United States.
In fact, the US National Hurricane Center says that so far it has not found
another year since records began in 1851 in which the United States was hit
by six tropical cyclones in a row, but it was still digging through
databases.
The tendency to target US shores is partly due to the atmospheric conditions
that steer hurricanes. In some years, many of the storms that charge across
the ocean eventually curve harmlessly northward without reaching the United
States.
"We've had an extensive area of high pressure in the middle and upper
atmosphere that has helped to steer the hurricanes west at lower latitudes,"
Bell said. "They have not recurved into the Atlantic." (Editing by Michael
Christie and Ross Colvin)
Story by Jim Loney
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
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