IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds measured at the
ACE spacecraft indicate a gradual increase in velocity. As the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream approaches, speeds have
increased from about 285 km/s to around 350 km/s over the last 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions for 15 September due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 16
September, with mostly quiet conditions expected for 17 September.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 067
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales