IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the
disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated
C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of
unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z
and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 - 25
September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 069
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales