IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
isolated active conditions at high latitudes for day one (30
September) of the forecast period. On day two (01 October) activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm
conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes for
day three (02 October) as the high speed stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 067
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 008/010-020/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/10
Minor storm 05/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/20
Minor storm 15/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/05
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales