Silicon prices to drop 43% in 2009
LONDON, UK, September 1, 2008. The price of polysilicon is set to
drop by up to 43% next year, according to the New Energy Finance Silicon and
Wafer Price Index, which was recently launched by analysts
New Energy Finance.
The analysis shows that shortages and production bottlenecks in these key materials in recent years have kept the cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules some 37% higher than would otherwise have been the case. Despite this, the number of new PV installations worldwide soared by 56% in 2007, and is set to rise a further 50% in 2008.
The data for the Index covered wafer volume equivalent to approximately 1.7 GW of PV modules, plus polysilicon data equivalent to approximately 6 GW.
The key findings include:
- The median forward price for polysilicon deliveries in 2009 is 43% lower than the median contract price for deliveries in 2008.
- The forward contract price for polysilicon falls for each year from 2008 to 2015, to below US$67/kg by 2013, a full 67% below current median prices. This is, however, still higher than the historical low spot prices between 2002 and 2004.
- The median forward price for multicrystalline wafers will hold at approximately the same level in 2009 as currently, indicating that the wafer supply situation is not expected to free up as quickly as polysilicon supply.
- Over the next five years, median forward contract prices for wafers drop by 41%, compared with a drop of 67% in forward polysilicon contracts, further suggesting that margin will shift from polysilicon refining to wafer manufacturing.
- The median forward contract wafer price falls below US$6/piece (US$1.62/W) only from 2011, with implications for the speed and cost reductions in PV power.
The New Energy Finance Silicon and Wafer Price Index is based on confidential data provided by 10 volume buyers and sellers of polysilicon and wafers, that have provided spot and forward pricing data for contracts signed in 2007 and 2008.
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