London (Platts)--14Apr2009

OPEC crude production averaged 28.5 million b/d in the first quarter of
2009 and is expected to remain close to this level in the second quarter
before rising to 28.82 million b/d in the third quarter and 29.2 million b/d
in the fourth, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, pumped an average 8.07 million b/d
over the quarter, down 880,000 b/d from the fourth quarter 2008 average of
8.95 million b/d, the EIA estimated.

The EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook that OPEC
production had fallen by 1.1 million b/d in the fourth quarter of last year to
reach 30.6 million b/d, and by an additional 2.1 million b/d in the first
quarter of 2009 to 28.5 million b/d.

"EIA expects production to remain close to that level in the second
quarter, then gradually increase to about 29.2 million b/d in the fourth
quarter," the agency, statistics arm of the Department of Energy, said.

For 2009 as a whole, the EIA expects OPEC crude production to average
28.78 million b/d, rising to 29.79 million b/d in 2010 "in response to an
expected increase in world oil consumption," said the EIA, which sees
consumption falling by 1.35 million b/d this year and then rising by 1.1
million b/d in 2010 as GDP growth recovers.

But the EIA questioned OPEC's willingness to maintain output at reduced
levels in the event of a prolonged global recession.

It said a prolonged downturn followed by a weak recovery could produce a
consumption decline greater than the 1.35 million b/d expected this year. This
scenario, it said, "would challenge the willingness of OPEC's members to
sustain lower output levels for a longer period." OPEC in March rolled over a
4.2 million b/d output cut pact agreed in December which sets a production
target of 24.845 million b/d for the 11 members--not including Iraq--bound by
quotas. The EIA's output estimates include a volume of 2.3 million b/d for
Iraq, leaving OPEC-11 production close to 26.2 million b/d in the first
quarter.