Global crude futures firmer as equities rise



London (Platts)--14Apr2009

Global crude futures recovered some of the previous session's losses
during European morning trade Tuesday, as equities rose in both Asia and
Europe.

By 1019 GMT (1119 BST), NYMEX's light sweet crude futures for May
delivery had re-conquered the $50/b mark, trading up 67 cents on the day at
$50.72/b, following an earlier drop to below $49/b. ICE Brent May crude edged
up $1.16/b to $53.30/b after hovering slightly above $51/b in the morning.

The rebound came as Saudi Arabian oil major Saudi Aramco extended cuts
under its term contracts for the fourth consecutive month, which will see its
Asian customers receive in May about one-tenth less than their contracted
volumes, trading sources said.

Also, equities markets were buoyed by investment bank Goldman Sachs'
disclosure of better-than-expected earnings and plans to pay back $5 billion
in government funds.

European participants, coming back from a four-day holiday weekend, were
also digesting the impact of a bearish demand forecast by International Energy
Agency in its monthly report released Friday.

Trading on Monday, a public holiday in Europe, had seen the WTI front
month tumble to $48.84/b and Brent reaching an intra-day low of $50.90/b,
marking a belated response to the IEA's move to cut its global crude demand
forecast for 2009 by a further 1 million b/d to 83.4 million b/d, a five-year
low. The forecast was released on Good Friday, when financial markets were
closed. Monday's trading was also impacted by the roll of major commodities
indices.

"Saudi nominations for May are a mixed bag," analyst Olivier Jakob at
Petromatrix said in his daily note. "Some consumers are reporting slightly
lower nomination, others, no change."

The sharp reduction of the IEA's demand forecast and comparatively high
crude inventories might fuel talk that OPEC could decide further cuts to its
production targets at its next meeting in late May, he said. "However,
improved compliance is still to be proven, and there are a few geopolitical
considerations that do not allow us to already jump to the conclusion that
Saudi Arabia will take on its shoulder a leading role in additional cuts."

"It seemed that for a change, some of the energy-specific news items
making the rounds on Monday exerted more of an influence on energy prices than
the US stock market did," analyst Edward Meir at MF Global said, adding though
that earning reports by major banks could impact overall sentiment.

Market participants were awaiting the short-term energy outlook of the
Energy Information Administration on Tuesday and OPEC's monthly review
Wednesday.

"We doubt either organization will deviate too much from the rather
sobering demand outlook that is emerging," MF Global's Meir said.

The product markets reflected the firmness of crude prices. ICE gasoil
front-month futures were $24/mt higher at $460/mt, while NYMEX heating oil May
futures nudged up 3.3 cents/gal to $1.43/gal. NYMEX RBOB May futures advanced
1 cent to $1.47/gal.