Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2009 Apr 06 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed

during the past 24 hours and the solar disk remains spotless

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet for 07 April. Quiet to unsettled conditions

are expected for 08 April as a recurrent coronal hole high speed

stream becomes geoeffective. Predominately unsettled levels with

periods of active conditions are expected for 09 April under the

influence of the coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Apr 069

Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 06 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 002/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 005/005-007/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/30/35

Minor storm 01/05/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/35/35

Minor storm 01/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05