SCENARIOS - US Greenhouse Decision And Congress Climate Push

Date: 20-Apr-09
Country: US
Author: Richard Cowan
 

WASHINGTON - The Obama administration's declaration that greenhouse gas emissions endanger human health comes as Congress prepares legislation to significantly reduce those emissions and spur the use of cleaner alternative fuels.

Friday's announcement by the Environmental Protection Agency was widely expected among lawmakers. Nonetheless, it could influence the debate that is unfolding in a few ways:

* A BOOST FOR DEMOCRATS?

Democrats in the House of Representatives think they have won a big boost in their drive to get a "cap and trade" bill through the Energy and Commerce Committee by the end of May.

The bill would aim to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and other key pollutants by 20 percent by 2020 and 83 percent by 2050, measuring from 2005 levels. It would do so in part through diminishing caps on industrial emissions and letting companies trade pollution permits they no longer need.

The EPA's finding that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions could be harmful to human health gives politicians a new sense of urgency and will allow Democrats to cite scientific evidence that is now backed by EPA.

They will use the EPA finding to blunt some Republicans' argument that climate change is not a problem.

Knowing that EPA stands ready to begin regulating greenhouse gas emissions, some lawmakers who formerly balked at climate change legislation may prefer legislation to administrative action.

* REGULATION AS A FALLBACK?

Getting legislation passed is seen as a challenge, especially in the Senate, where a minority can use procedural rules to endlessly delay the bill.

If the concerns of key Republicans and some moderate Democrats cannot be successfully addressed by Democratic leaders, the global warming bill will be dead in its tracks.

Some wavering lawmakers might see the EPA announcement as a way of avoiding a difficult vote on climate change. They can quietly block legislation but note their support for EPA regulations to control harmful emissions.

President Barack Obama wants to tackle climate change both from an environmental perspective and as a way of boosting the economy with a spate of new jobs in alternative energy industries. If Congress refuses to respond, Obama won't hesitate to use the less desirable regulatory route and instruct EPA to impose new limits on pollution.

* A BOOST FOR COPENHAGEN?

The United States and countries from around the world are scheduled to meet in December in Copenhagen to try to advance an international effort at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Even if the US Congress is deadlocked over domestic legislation, the Obama administration can point to the EPA ruling as evidence that it intends to move one of the biggest emitting countries into action after eight years of delay by the Bush administration.

(Reporting by Richard Cowan; editing by Mohammad Zargham)