London (Platts)--27Apr2009

Apparent steel demand worldwide is expected to fall to 1.019 billion mt
in 2009, down 14.9% over 2008, but could stabilize in the latter part of 2009
and recover slightly in 2010, Worldsteel said in a statement Monday.

Of all regions, NAFTA (Mexico, the US and Canada) is expected to see the
biggest drop year on year at 88 million mt of steel used, down 32.2% over
2008, the report said. The US is to see the largest drop in demand in 2009 of
all countries surveyed: -36.6% to 61.8 million mt.

Steel use in the EU-27 is to drop to 129.2 million mt, down 28.8%, while
other European countries are to see a 25.7% drop in steel use, Worldsteel
forecast. Demand in the CIS is set to fall 23.1% to 38.4 million mt.

Japan has also been affected by a sharp decline in the exports of its
steel-using industries, especially automotive and machinery, the statement
said. Apparent steel use is expected to fall by 20.4% in 2009.

Chinese demand is expected to drop 5% year on year to 404.4 million mt.
"Emerging economies are being affected by the economic crisis as well, but to
a lesser degree," the report said. Demand in Asia and Oceania as a whole is
only forecast to fall by 8.1% year on year, while BRIC countries (Brazil,
Russia, India and China) can expect a drop in apparent steel use of just 5.9%.

Steel demand is expected to drop 13.9% in Central America to 37.6 million
mt, 8.9% in the Middle-East to 39 million mt, and by just 0.5% in Africa to
25.2 million mt.

The revised forecasts were set by Worldsteel's economic committee on
April 26. "The progression of the US financial crisis into a global economic
crisis brought about a massive and regionally synchronised global decline of
steel demand in late 2008," the chairman of Worlsteel's economic committee
Daniel Novegil said. "For most of the world this trend has continued into the
first quarter of 2009. Improvement in steel consumption for the second half of
2009 will depend on the effects of government stimulation packages, the
continued stabilisation of financial systems and a return of some consumer
confidence."

The projections forecast by Worldsteel consider both real and apparent
steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the
marketplace from the domestic steel producers as well as from importers. This
differs from real steel use, which takes into account steel delivered to or
drawn from inventories.

The board of Worldsteel will review a short-range outlook for 2010 at its
board meeting in October 2009 in Beijing.

Worldsteel represents approximately 180 steel producers (including 18 of
the world's 20 largest steel companies), national and regional steel industry
associations, and steel research institutes. Its members produce around 85% of
the world's steel.