IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one isolated active
period observed at middle latitudes between 03/0600 - 0900Z. An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 02/2000Z - 03/1000Z that contributed to the unsettled to
active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (04 August).
On days two and three (05 - 06 August), field conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream will become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 067
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales