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COMEX gold makes modest gains against weaker
dollar
New York (Platts)--14Dec2009/532 pm EST/2232 GMT
Gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange made modest gains Monday morning after the dollar eased against
the euro in the wake of last week's losses, which wiped close to $100/oz
off the price of gold.
The active February contract was trading at $1,124.30 at 105 pm
EST (1805 GMT), up $4.40/oz from Friday's settlement.
Traders said that both the dollar and gold were doing little
ahead of a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the
Federal Reserve on interest rate policy. The Federal Reserve is due to
announce its decision on interest rates at around 215 pm EST (1915 GMT)
on December 16.
There has been much speculation over the past week that the Fed
may indicate it is willing to raise interest rates sooner than previous
indications as a result of stronger-than-expected unemployment and
manufacturing data. This speculation resulted in the dollar reaching
five-week highs last week and a significant correction in gold prices.
Further pressure came from concerns over national debts in Greece and
ongoing worries about Dubai's credit crisis.
Earlier Monday, Abu Dhabi came up with an unexpected $10
billion bailout offer to neighboring emirate Dubai to help avoid a
national debt default. The move, along with a takeover deal by US oil
major Exxon Mobil for natural gas supplier XTO Energy, bolstered
equities and risk appetite generally.
"The Abu Dhabi bailout was as unexpected as the Dubai credit
crisis itself, so that's definitely supported equities and it's stoked
up a bit of risk appetite and commodities are higher this morning," said
an analyst. "For those long-term investors, they've been looking for the
right signal of when to use the gold correction as an opportunity to buy
more and this may have been enough for some of them. But I think the
market could be very cautious ahead of the Fed's interest rate
announcement."
A trader agreed that risk appetite had improved this morning.
"I think it had got overdone on the downside, in any case, so
the stronger sentiment that's around from the Abu Dhabi bailout is being
lapped up by gold investors, although the gains in gold are modest," he
said. "The big question is what's the Fed going to do this week? If they
don't change the language on the duration of low interest rates, I can
see the dollar taking quite a dive in the second half of this week and
gold climbing sharply. If they do indicate that interest rates could
rise sooner rather than later, then the dollar will climb and gold could
come back down to $1,000."
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that
inflation remained under control, leading several commentators to
believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its interest rate
policy. Nevertheless, speculation on a change in direction continued to
support the dollar throughout most of last week.
--Anthony Poole, anthony_poole@platts.com
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