With prices and demand so low one would expect investment to be in abeyance, and one would be right with regard to long-term replacement of coal and nuclear capacity.

However, during the fat years leading up to the crash, large amounts of gas-fired capacity was planned and entered construction, while similar amounts of wind capacity was fast-tracked to capture subsidies.

The two technologies share a key attribute – speed to market. The dash for gas and wind has made continental supply-demand forecasting harder than ever.

In September this year Platts’ data showed that around 10-GW of gas-fired capacity – up to 20 power stations - were scheduled to come online before the end of the year across west Europe.

Some of this capacity is bound to spill over into 2010, when a further 8.5-GW of CCGTs are set to enter service. Of this, 2,500-MW are in Spain, 1,650-MW in the UK, 1,200-MW are in France, 1,200-MW in Italy, 850-MW in Greece and 440-MW in Ireland.
Beyond 2010, there are over 9-GW of further CCGT capacity presently in construction and heading for completion in 2011 or 2012 -- it really is CCGT all the way, with the focus over that time moving from the UK to Spain and Italy and now swinging back north, with much of the capacity due to come on line in 2011 and beyond in the Netherlands, Germany, France, Belgium and the UK.

Tracking wind additions is a harder task because of the multiplicity of projects. The sector has had two stellar years with around 8-GW added across West Europe in each of 2007 and 2008.

Onshore additions remain strong but this year the credit crunch has taken the shine off some ambitious offshore wind projects that had hoped to be farther down the financing road by now.

The problem is money. With commercial finance only slowly thawing out, developers have been seeking alternative sources of funds, beating a path for instance to the European Investment Bank (EIB).

In July the London Array consortium said it was seeking £1 billion from the EIB to part-fund its £2.2-billion first phase. A few days earlier the EIB said it was assessing a £600 million loan to be disbursed by the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change to support a £2-billion program of onshore wind projects.

Separately, Scottish and Southern Energy is being assessed by the EIB for loans of £400 million to support SSE’s plans for six onshore wind farms with installed capacity amounting to nearly 650 MW.

And Irish state utility Electricity Supply Board’s renewables program is being assessed by the EIB for financing of €175 million. Spanish, German, Italian and Portuguese projects are among the many to apply for similar funding.

For coal the picture is the reverse of offshore wind -- the majority of permitted projects are underway, with over 14-GW in construction in Germany and the Netherlands, but there are very few new plants being actively developed through the consenting phase. (See tables: West Europe: in construction or in advanced development).

This is because of on-going investor concerns (emissions trading, carbon capture and storage development costs, other capital costs) and vociferous public opposition.

With gas rampant, new coal and nuclear advocates are left to fight for political support. In the UK, nuclear lobbyists have moved from requesting clearer, faster consenting to an acceptance that new nuclear needs the support of a carbon floor price.

A glance at capital costs explains much. Turnkey cost quotes for CCGT are reported to have dipped to between €600-700/kW installed. Platts’ analysis gives an average cost for CCGT plant in construction of €625/kW.

For a nuclear European Pressurized Reactor (EPR), capital cost is €2,500/kW and rising as the world awaits news of final bills for Olkiluoto 3 and Flamanville. If reports of a €1.7 billion cost overrun are correct in Finland, O-3’s first-of-a-kind EPR will cost nearer €3,000/kW.

Early UK estimates for an EPR put the cost at £4 billion-plus, or €2,940/kW.