Reflecting more bullish GDP outlook figures the IMF recently, it's no surprise that the IEA has adjusted its oil demand estimates to reflect the recovering economic climate.
Under the IEA latest monthly report, non-OPEC producers, which account for about 60% of the global total, will provide 51.6 million b/d in 2010, or 265,000 b/d less than previously anticipated.
This, they say, is a result of a wide-ranging reappraisal of global NGL production figures.
As a result, NGL production in the US and Canada was curbed sharply, with output now expected to decline a combined 100,000 b/d over the forecast period, on the basis of a less optimistic North American gas production forecast.
The upshot in the short term is a massive 800,000 b/d upward revision to the call on OPEC crude for the final quarter of 2010 with the average for the year rising 500,000 b/d to 29 million b/d.
Given OPEC's currently ample spare capacity of over 6 million b/d, that shouldn't raise too many eyebrows.
Further out, however, the non-OPEC supply picture is more optimistic, with total output now expected to grow 700,000 b/d from 2008 to 2014, reaching 51.4 million b/d, compared with a decline of 400,000 b/d forecast in June.
The IEA said changes are down to a more optimistic view on project start-up dates and reappraisal of NGLs.
Overall, the IEA raised its medium-term global supply capacity projections to show an upward adjustment of 1.1 million b/d on average in 2008-2014.
How this squares with the 2010 downward revision to non-OPEC supply is unclear, unless we are to take it that the near-term revision is the result of a more up to date baseline.
