New spin for Europe's dash-for-gas
By Henry Edwardes-Evans & Alex Froley
December 3, 2009 - Two years ago European forward power prices were
running consistently at between 60-70/MWh. Nobody foresaw that within
12 months those prices would have gone on an unprecedented bull run up
to 80-100/MWh before crashing to 40-50/MWh.
Indeed the consensus was that prices would stabilize at or above new
entrant levels of 60/MWh. It was during this rosy period of high prices
and optimistic forecasts that a large number of gas, coal and renewable
power projects moved through permitting to advanced development status.
Two years on and the benchmark German year ahead baseload power price is
languishing below /MWh. How has this price and demand destruction
affected utility investment plans? With the evaporation of economic and
physical demand drivers, what is giving impetus to new investment today?
With analysis of Platts' power market reports and new construction data,
this feature explores the strategic choices and risks facing European
utilities at a time of financial hardship, and identifies diversity in
gas supply as a key component in Europe's efforts to move from high to
low carbon intensity.
Timing the recovery
The timing of demand and price recovery is weighing heavily on the power
sector. Nine month 2009 sales and revenue figures from the major
utilities reflect industrial demand decline, offset only partially by
resilient residential demand.
A 39% boost to domestic resources would be welcomed by a continent still
questioning the reliability of gas in the wake of the major
Russia/Ukraine gas transport dispute at the start of the year. While
demand decline has slowed as the year has progressed, hopes that the
trend might reverse this year have ebbed away.
At the 14th International Gas and Electricity Summit in Paris in October
senior European gas industry figures were generally cautious.
Power and gas consumption in Germany is down 7% year on year -- and 14%
in the industrial sector. Spanish power demand is set to drop by 4-5%
for full year 2009, according to REE chief executive Luis Atienza.
"Three months ago we thought we were going into positive territory
towards the end of the year, now we see that's not the case," he said.
REE expects demand to remain flat in 2010.
Germanys benchmark Cal 10 base contract at 45/MWh on November 25 has
been falling steadily since October 21, when a brief rally saw it rise
above 49. The long-term new entrant price of 60-65/MWh is a distant
prospect.
More generally, continental European Cals are more than 30/MWh down
year-on-year as the contracts struggle to regain ground lost over the
last 16 months.
The recent exception has been France, where nuclear availability issues
temporarily inflated forward prices, but the brief volatility was
short-lived and the French Cal has itself dipped below 50. (See chart:
Platts Year Ahead Base Power Assessment (/MWh)).
There is a fragile consensus that demand recovery in power and gas
markets will take around two years. Gas price recovery may take longer,
for reasons explored later in this article.
With regard to generating capacity margins in the longer term, the UK is
seen as a European exception when it comes to judging demand recovery
because, whatever happens, supply is heading for a cliff in five to six
years time when non-retrofit coal plant is forced to close.
The UK is also uniquely disadvantaged by its choice of nuclear
technology, so extensions are highly unlikely.
On the continent the supply-demand balance is less certain because a
much higher proportion of coal plant has been retrofitted and nuclear
units have the potential of extended lifetimes.
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