Sifting through the Fog

Sifting through the Fog

December 09, 2009

Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief

Despite the cries of foul play, the global community is working right now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But the massive uproar from skeptics over global warming has diverted attention and dampened some of the enthusiasm in Copenhagen where those climate talks are occurring.

Global warming has always been a hot topic. For those who believe adamantly that the earth's temperature is gradually warming and threatening the planet's viability, it's principally a man-made issue. Critics, however, say that the science has shortcomings and that the earth's warming -- and cooling -- is all part of natural climate cycles. Now, though, they are arguing that the some of the leading climatologists who espouse man-made global warming have not been entirely upfront.

Their arguments center on roughly 1,000 stolen emails from the Climatic Research Unit of University of East Anglia in Britain as proof that climate science is actually a hoax. But researchers say that their emails, which were written over a decade and which were anonymously hacked, are a fraction of those exchanged and that they have been manipulated.

While some will argue that this douses the whole global warming theory, it is -- from this writer's perspective -- a colossal political issue. It is neither the job of this writer to clamp down or to light fires under any issue but merely to analyze topics that affect the lives of readers. And while so-called "Climate-gate" does resonate among those who already believe that the current climate science is a ruse, it will not deter the "true believers."

Here are some polls: Harris says that 51 percent of Americans believe that global warming is man-made. Two years ago, it was 71 percent. It also says that 73 percent of Democrats subscribe to the thinking that it is a serious issue whereas only 28 percent of Republicans do, and 49 percent of independents. The shift in public opinion, adds the Pew Center, is mostly from independents. In April 2008, it says that 75 percent of them were of the opinion that global warming is a man-made phenomenon.

To cut to the chase, some of this debate comes down to whether citizens think it a wise use of public resources to promote the development of new -- but yet less proven -- green technologies at the expense of older -- but less environmentally -- savvy ones. Those that tend to advance the coming of the next-generation economy are in favor of this re- allocation of resources. Conversely, those that are not say that this nation is addressing a non-issue while wasting a ton of money doing it. It's a classic Obama v. Bush debate.

The philosophical leanings of energy industry onlookers aside, let's examine the underlying critique of the scientists who have been accused of hiding some of the research: One key email is from Phil Jones, director of the climate research center, who alludes to "tricks" as a way "hide the decline" in "real temps" for "the last 20 years."

"A tiny clique of politicized scientists, paid by unscientific politicians with whom they were financially and politically linked, were responsible for gathering and reporting data on temperatures," writes Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, chief policy advisor to the Science and Public Policy Institute in Britain. They "were bending and distorting scientific data to fit a nakedly political storyline profitable to themselves and congenial to the governments that pay the bills for 99 percent of all scientific research."

Peer Reviews

Sounds pretty nefarious. But proponents of global warming theories say that the Climatic Research Center has an impeccable set of credentials. It has, in fact, assembled weather records spanning the past century. Its overall research shows that the world has been warming on a global level -- and to an unprecedented degree.

According to Spencer Weart, who is the director emeritus at the American Institute for Physics in College Park, Md., the center's work has been checked and rechecked through peer reviews. Among those confirming its findings: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the Japanese Meteorological Agency in Japan.

"Given that the critics only point to a few phrases among the thousand or so emails, which in turn were selected from what must have been many thousands more, and given that the scientists have plausibly argued in defense of their work, the charge of dishonesty can only be seen as speculation," says Weart. "In short, a very wide variety of scientific evidence independently confirms the warming, so nothing said in the emails can shake that conclusion."

"Observations throughout the world have led to overwhelming consensus among scientists that global warming is occurring and is the result of human activities," adds Jennifer W. Harden, research soil scientist and a 30-year Bio-geochemist with U.S. Geological Survey. "The scandal is the theft and distribution of private emails, and not their contents."

The emails and words that have made their way into the press, she says, are taken out of context. "Tricks," "techniques" or "methods," for example, are not meant to fool anyone. And "hide the decline" refers to data from tree rings -- a practice that she says has now been replaced with "actual thermometer records." Scientists, she maintains, have been trying to make the data more accurate.

It's a lot to digest. But it's the job of this analyst to try and sift through it all and to shed light on matters for broader audiences. While this writer takes no position on the merits of any global warming theories, he does maintain his long-standing premise: Carbon constraints will arrive and businesses will have to adapt.

The fog created by "Climate-gate" does not change that. In fact, it will only serve to inflame those who believe that climate change is a man-made problem.