AS WORLD leaders arrive in Copenhagen for the crunch phase of
the climate conference, the focus turns to what kind of deal is
likely to emerge. Pre-eminent climate scientist Prof James
Hansen of the Nasa Goddard Institute has already given the
entire process the kiss of death. Any political deal cobbled
together is, he believes, likely to be so profoundly flawed as
to lock humanity on to "a disaster track", writes JOHN GIBBONS
Hansen voiced publicly what environmental scientists and
campaigners have murmured all year. A political fudge that ducks
science is the likeliest outcome at Copenhagen. Earlier this
week, for instance, EU fisheries ministers agreed a deal that
pleased our Government and our fishermen. However, it does
little to arrest the progressive annihilation of a common
resource that, like our atmosphere, is owned by no one - and so
exploited by all.
The world faces a dangerous convergence of environmental and
resource crises, not all directly climate related. All, however,
are increasingly difficult to resolve in a rapidly warming
world. Taken together, they are not amenable to a
business-as-usual political response. Here, in no particular
order, are six:
1. Biodiversity: “The world is currently undergoing a very rapid
loss of biodiversity comparable with the great mass extinction
events that have previously occurred only five or six times in
the Earth’s history,” says the World Wildlife Fund. It has
tracked an astonishing 30 per cent decline in the Earth’s
biodiversity between 1970-2003. Hunting, habitat destruction,
deforestation, pollution and the spread of agriculture are
leading to as many as 1,000 entire species going extinct every
week – that’s a species every 10 minutes. The economic cost of
destroying biodiversity is also immense. A 2008 EU study
estimated the cost of forest loss alone is running at $2-$5
trillion (€1.3-€3.4 trillion) annually.
2. Ocean acidification: The evidence of the effects of increased
CO2 levels on the world’s oceans is unequivocal. Surface ocean
acidity has increased by 30 per cent since 1800, with half this
increase occurring in just the last three decades. The rate of
change in oceanic pH levels is around 100 times faster than any
observed natural rate. Increasing acidity is impeding the
ability of plankton called foraminifera to produce shells. These
creatures form the base of the entire marine food system. The
world’s vital reef systems are also in peril from acidification.
3. Population pressure: Broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has
witnessed how the natural world is being crushed by humanity.
“I’ve never seen a problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with
fewer people, or harder – and ultimately impossible – with
more,” he says. The Earth must provide for around 80 million
more people than this time last year. It took us almost 10,000
years to reach a billion people. We now add that many every 12
years.
4. Peak oil: This month, the International Energy Agency
formally predicted global peak oil by 2020. Today, the world
burns the equivalent of 82 million barrels of oil every day.
Projected growth in energy demand will see this rise to almost
100 million barrels within a decade, but by then, output from
the oilfields currently in production will have plummeted to
barely a third of that. A massive energy gap is looming, and
with discoveries having peaked in the mid-1960s, we are
approaching the bottom of the cheap oil barrel. Non-conventional
oil, renewables and nuclear will be nowhere near capable of
bridging this energy gap in time. The oil shocks of the coming
decade will be intense.
5. Peak food: the global food system is predicated on lashings
of cheap oil, fresh water, soil and natural gas. All four are in
decline. The food riots of 2008 were an early warning of a
global system in crisis. In the US, it is estimated every
calorie of food energy requires 10 calories of fossil fuel
energy. More food production is now being channelled into
fattening animals. Meat is a tasty but entirely inefficient way
to use finite food resources. Meanwhile, the UN predicts the
collapse of all global commercial marine fisheries by 2048,
depriving up to two billion people of food.
6. Peak water: During the 20th century, human water usage
increased nine-fold, with irrigation (for agriculture) alone
using two-thirds of this total. With almost all major glaciers
retreating, many river systems are at risk. Groundwater in
aquifers is another key fresh water source. Over-extraction,
mostly for agriculture, has caused their levels worldwide to
plummet. Pollution, especially from fertiliser overuse, adds to
the loss of fresh water. The Environmental Protection Agency
yesterday reported only 17 per cent of Ireland’s rivers are of
“high ecological status”.
The 19th century naturalist John Muir famously wrote that “when
one tugs at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to
the rest of the world”. As the Copenhagen conference draws to a
close, the words of a contemporary of Muir, politician and
orator Robert Ingersoll, have never seemed more apt: “In nature
there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are only
consequences.”
John Gibbons blogs at www.thinkorswim.ie