Dec 08 - MARKETWIRE


The United States is on pace to dominate the global solar PV market, according to a recent report by GTM Research: The United States PV Market Through 2013: Project Economics, Policy, Demand and Strategy. Buoyed by falling solar prices and a domestic economy on the rebound, the U.S. will challenge Germany as the industry's largest solar market over the next four years.

GTM Research estimates that demand for PV installations will grow by roughly 50 percent annually to between 1.5 GW and 2 GW in 2012. This growth could support at least 50,000 new jobs and over $6.1 billion in annual investment, and it will allow 1.5 million homes to enjoy clean, reliable solar energy. The graphic provides demand projections for the U.S. through 2012.

2009 Will Be a Record Year for the U.S. PV Market

Despite the recession, the report argues that 2009 is a record year for the U.S. PV Market. Installed projects will reach 440 MW in 2009, up from 320 MW in 2008. By 2011, demand will more than double to reach 1,212 MW.

Demand is increasingly supported by the residential and utility-scale sectors, which have taken advantage of new incentives in the Recovery Act of 2008. Funding from the 2009 Stimulus Package (ARRA) will also support an expanded market for public sector projects.

Second-Tier State Markets Gain Increasing Importance

California remains the country's dominant state market, but second-tier states will soon emerge to diversify the U.S. market. By 2012, combined base-case demand from Arizona, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada and Massachusetts will reach 376 MW. With this new opportunity, it is more important than ever to understand the complex mix of incentives and regulations that govern growth in these new state markets.

"California will remain the largest PV market in the country, but downstream success is contingent on competing in the five to seven second-tier demand states that will emerge by 2012, each supporting over 40 MW of annual demand," said Shayle Kann, Energy Analyst at GTM Research and co-author of the report.

Utility-Scale Projects Drive Growth

Utility-scale installations will be the fastest growing market segment, stealing market share from the commercial sector and reaching 466 MW in the 2012 base-case scenario. This is partly a result of renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements and a wave of new solar-specific RFPs in states with solar carve-outs. It is also a result of heightened interest in utility ownership of PV, for which there are numerous economic and operational benefits for utilities.

"Innovations in utility-scale PV business models will create new market opportunities for traditional players in the energy and infrastructure space, as well as for European project developers with experience building large PV projects. This emergent market will also benefit the handful of well-funded, experienced U.S. PV project developers," said Daniel Englander, GTM Research's Senior Energy Analyst and the report's co-author.

Detailed information and intelligence on project financing, profiles of all leading project developers, detailed analysis of the 16 primary state markets, demand projections by state and market segment, and analysis of the impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) on PV demand in the U.S. can be found in the report.

SOURCE: Greentech Media Inc.