Climate Tipping Point Near Warn UN, World Bank
WASHINGTON, DC, February 23, 2009 (ENS) -
The planet is quickly approaching the tipping point for abrupt climate
changes, perhaps within a few years, according to the UN Environmental
Programme's newly released 2009 Year Book and a separate World Bank report
now being presented throughout Latin America.
The UN agency warns that urgent action is needed to avoid catastrophic
climate events such as major food and water shortages, shifts in weather
patterns, and destabilization of "major ice sheets that could introduce
unanticipated rates of sea level rise within the 21st century."
The report warns that climate changes are occurring much faster than
anticipated by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report,
issued in 2007.
While earlier estimates forecast up to half a meter (19.5 inches) rise in
sea level in the coming century, updated calculations suggest that the rise
may be as high as two meters (78 inches).
Melting ice sheets and glaciers in the northern and southern hemispheres
will not only contribute to sea level rise, but will also leave many regions
around the world without basic water resources for human consumption and
industrial production.
In its new report, the World Bank focuses on four climate impacts of special
concern: "the warming and eventual disabling of mountain ecosystems in the
Andes; the bleaching of coral reefs leading to an anticipated total collapse
of the coral biome in the Caribbean basin; the damage to vast stretches of
wetlands and associated coastal systems in the Gulf of Mexico; and the risk
of forest dieback in the Amazon basin."
Wetlands at the base of a melting glacier in the Peruvian Andes January
2007. (Photo by Huantopa)
Last week, World Bank climate experts presented devastating news to an
audience in Lima, Peru - glaciers in the Andes mountain range may disappear
within the next 20 years unless immediate action is taken to mitigate
climate change.
In the past 35 years, Peruvian glaciers have shrunk by 22 percent, resulting
in a 12 percent reduction in freshwater for the coastal area, the home of
about 60 percent of the country's population.
Bolivia and Ecuador, which depend on nearby glaciers for water, also are
facing serious shortages.
The World Bank report "Low Carbon, High Growth: Latin American Responses to
Climate Change," is being presented during regional visit by bank experts
who were in Central America earlier this month and are now touring Andean
countries. The visit will finish with a visit to Argentina, Chile and Brazil
by mid-March.
Damage from hurricanes and tropical storms will increase, the World Bank
reports. Estimates suggest that losses from hurricane damage along the
coasts of the Gulf of Mexico "could increase tenfold from 2020 to 2025."
"In Central America and the Caribbean, losses will triple or quadruple,
respectively, in the same period," said World Bank economist John Nash, who
presented the report in El Salvador.
"Climate change can have extremely severe consequences for Colombian
agriculture," said Walter Vergara, a bank climate change expert who spoke
during the presentation held in Bogota on February 16.
Vergara warned that in the worst-case scenario Colombian farm production
could suffer an almost total loss of 94 percent as a result of temperature
rises from 2.5 to five degrees Celsius and a 10 percent variation in annual
rainfalls.
The bank's report acknowledges the efforts Colombia is making in its fight
against climate change, especially in the area of public transportation. The
bank experts foresee potential benefits for the country as a result of new
global agreements and aid programs.
Augusto de la Torre, a national of Ecuador, is the chief economist for Latin
America and the Caribbean. (Photo courtesy World Bank)
"Current negotiations seek to include programs for reducing emissions from
deforestation and degradation in developing countries, commonly known as
REDD, in a future post-Kyoto agreement," explained Augusto de la Torre,
World Bank lead economist for the region and one of the authors of the
report.
This post-Kyoto agreement is being shaped by talks among governments
throughout this year that will culminate in the annual UN climate conference
in December in Copenhagen, where an agreement is expected to be finalized.
Combating rising temperatures and slowing the rate that ice and snow are
melting requires quick action.
One near-term solution is to focus on black carbon, or soot, an aerosol that
scientists assert may be the second largest contributor to climate change
after the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and that has an enhanced impact on
snow and ice melt.
Black carbon is emitted from incomplete combustion of burning fossil fuels
and biomass, and contributes to climate change in two ways. First, while in
the atmosphere, the dark particles absorb heat and warm the air.
Then, when black carbon falls on ice and snow, it absorbs more solar
radiation, leading to more rapid melting, which then leads to less
reflective ice, in a dangerous accelerating feedback cycle.
Sooty sky obscures a double rainbow over the town of Greenock in western
Scotland. (Photo by Bilco8)
Unlike carbon dioxide, CO2, which remains in the atmosphere for over a
thousand years, black carbon lingers only for a few days, so reducing black
carbon emissions would have an immediate effect on global warming and also
would have health benefits for millions of people risk disease and death
from breathing polluted air.
"In contrast to reductions in black carbon soot, cuts in CO2 emissions,
while essential, do not produce significant cooling for at least a thousand
years," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and
Sustainable Development.
Zaelke attended UNEP's Governing Council meeting in Nairobi last week to
urge fast action on black carbon and other strategies that can produce quick
climate mitigation.
He urges that the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty be used to rapidly phase
out hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs, which are used as refrigerants and foam
blowing agents. They also are used in manufacturing and emitted as
by-products of industrial processes.
HFCs are a class of replacements for ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons
phased out under the Montreal Protocol. Because HFCs do not contain chlorine
or bromine, they do not deplete the ozone layer, but they do have global
warming potential that is much higher than CO2.
Another carbon negative strategy is the production of biochar, which
scientists say can significantly reduce current CO2 concentrations within
decades.
Zaelke warns, "The UNEP and World Bank reports are clear - the world is
facing serious danger, and we have to take urgent and aggressive action now
- starting with black carbon reductions - to avoid devastating consequences
of passing tipping points."
Click
here to view the UN Environment Programme's 2009 Year Book.
Copyright
Environment News Service (ENS) 2009. All rights reserved.
To
subscribe or visit go to: http://www.ens-newswire.com
|