Washington (Platts)--9Feb2009
Increasing the use of wind power to 20% across a large section of the US
Eastern Interconnection would require about $80 billion in new transmission
infrastructure, according to a report released Monday by regional grid
operators and utilities.
The report, the "Joint Coordinated System Plan," was described as the
first step of a transmission and generation system expansion analysis covering
most of the Eastern Interconnection and was compiled by the Southwest Power
Pool, the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, the PJM
Interconnection, the Tennessee Valley Authority and participants within the
SERC Reliability Corporation.
The analysis examined two transmission and generation possibilities
between 2008 and 2024, when the peak load in the Eastern Interconnection,
excluding Florida, is projected to reach 745,000 MW. The first, or Reference
Scenario, assumes "a business as usual" approach to wind development that
would leave the region obtaining 5% of its energy supply from wind by 2024.
Under the second scenario, the percentage of wind power would increase to
20% by 2024.
The study found that incorporating 5% wind energy will require the
addition of roughly 10,000 miles of new "extra-high voltage transmission" at a
cost of about $50 million, in addition to nearly $700 billion total generation
capital costs by 2024.
Under the more aggressive scenario, the report said 15,000 miles of new
extra-high voltage lines would be required at a cost of about $80 billion, in
addition to $1.1 trillion in total generation capital costs by 2024.
Both scenarios assume that developers would bear generation capital
costs. The funding source for the transmission build-out has not been
determined.
The study also estimated that under the Reference Scenario, the
generation mix in the Eastern Interconnection would produce 35 billion tons of
carbon between 2008 and 2024 with a 5% contribution from wind energy. Under a
20% wind energy scenario, the study said comparable carbon emissions would be
about 32.1 billion tons, an 8% reduction.
"We believe that although the JCSP '08 examined a small set of scenarios
with limited variables, this study nonetheless gives a clear idea of the scale
of commitment it will take to integrate large amounts of renewable resources
into the grid," MISO President and John Bear said in a statement. "This is
information we believe that our leaders need to consider as they begin work
under a new administration and start defining our energy future."
The planning group said it will refine the study in the current quarter
to consider additional scenarios, perform a detailed reliability assessment,
refine assumptions and recommend new transmission facilities. It hopes to
deliver a report to the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Congress
"in the first few months of the new administration."
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