London (Platts)--13Feb2009

OPEC Friday cut its forecast of world oil demand in 2009 as a result of
the continuing deterioration in the global economy.

In its latest monthly oil market report, OPEC said it now expected world
oil demand to drop by 580,000 b/d this year, compared with a previous estimate
of a fall of 180,000 b/d.

In outright terms, OPEC expects demand to average 85.13 million b/d in
2009, down from a previous estimate of 85.66 million b/d and from last year's
average of 85.7 million b/d.

Demand weakness is particularly apparent in the developed countries of
the OECD, whose combined demand is expected to fall by 1.13 million b/d, or
2.4%, to 46.48 million b/d, said the report from OPEC's Vienna secretariat.

Offsetting this, OPEC expects demand from the Middle East to rise by
240,000 b/d, or 3.5%.

And although Chinese demand growth is slowing, OPEC still expects
consumption in the world's second-biggest oil user to rise to 8.16 million b/d
this year, up 180,000 b/d or 2.25% from 2008.

On the supply side, OPEC cut its forecast for non-OPEC production in 2009
to 50.89 million b/d, 260,000 b/d less than previously predicted.

This would leave year-on-year growth in non-OPEC supply of 550,000 b/d,
with new supplies from Latin America, Asia and the former Soviet Union
offsetting expected declines totaling 260,000 b/d from the UK and Norway.

With the cuts to OPEC's demand forecasts outweighing the reduction to
non-OPEC supply, OPEC also cut the estimated demand on its own crude for this
year to 29.22 million b/d, down from a previous figure of 29.48 million b/d.

This estimate, also known as the call on OPEC, reflects the amount of oil
OPEC would have to produce to balance supply and demand.

OPEC estimated the call on its own crude in the first quarter of this
year at 29.75 million b/d, more than 1 million b/d above its estimate of its
own production in January of 28.71 million b/d.

The call on OPEC is expected to fall to 28.75 million b/d in the second
quarter of 2009, before rising to 28.83 million b/d in the third quarter and
to 29.55 million in the last three months of the year.