IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1012 (S05E48)
produced today's only flare, a B4 at 1619Z. The event was associated
with a relatively symmetrical wave that was well defined in the
STEREO-B EUVI 195 imagery. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first day (13 February) and partway
through the second day (14 February). During the latter part of the
second day and continuing through the third day (15 February) a
favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity
to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 070
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/10

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales