IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
and the visible disk remains spotless. A weak, slow moving CME was
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at
19/0154Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels early in the summary
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (20
February). By days two and three (21 - 22 February), predominately
quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position. The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 069
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales