But Who Will Drive Them?

But Who Will Drive Them?

Published: January 16, 2009

The cornucopia of hybrid and electric vehicles showcased at the North American International Auto Show this week suggests that the nation’s automakers — domestic and transplanted — have finally acknowledged the need to deliver the fuel-efficient cars and trucks for a future of expensive gas and increasing environmental pressures.

But a big obstacle remains to the greening of American drivers: the price tag. With gas prices likely to remain low as consumers grapple with recession, drivers are going to need extra motivation to swap their gas gluttons for the novel, environmentally friendly cars and trucks. If the incoming Obama administration is serious about its commitment to boost the fuel efficiency of the American fleet, it must put in place a mix of policies, beyond tightening fuel-economy standards for carmakers, to steer drivers to the new cars.

The price of Ford’s new hybrid Fusion sedan, estimated to travel a whopping 41 miles per gallon in the city, is expected to start at more than $27,000. The Volt, General Motors’s high-profile plug-in car, could cost as much as $40,000. There are cheaper paths to environmental virtue: The Toyota Prius starts at only $22,000. And Honda’s Insight hybrid — to go on sale later this year — is expected to cost less.

Still, with gas below $2 a gallon and recession-ravaged consumers hanging tight to their wallets, even the cheaper hybrids have to compete with cars that run on boring old internal combustion engines. The Prius was the flavor of the month when gas prices soared to $4. But in December, Prius sales plummeted 45 percent compared with the same month a year earlier — more than the 36 percent drop in all car sales.

Do the math. At $1.66 a gallon, the average gas price assumed in the government’s 2009 energy guide, a hybrid Toyota Camry would only save the average driver about $250 a year in gas, compared with the regular Camry. But the hybrid costs $7,000 more.

A hefty gas tax would, of course, produce a strong incentive for drivers to switch to more fuel-efficient cars. But confronting a staggering economy, the Obama administration would be right to look for other options in the immediate future. The modest tax rebates offered to jump-start sales of hybrids and plug-ins starting in 2005 already have been phased out for the more popular models made by Honda and Toyota — and are slated to disappear entirely at the end of next year.

These rebates could be extended and increased. Ideally, they would be available to buyers of any car that achieved big improvements in energy efficiency, not just hi-tech vehicles. Another, more aggressive option floated last year by Alan Blinder, an economist at Princeton, would be for the government to buy up the most polluting and gas-hogging clunkers from American drivers and scrap them. That is an idea that has been tested in several states.

These ideas would fit neatly into an economic stimulus strategy, the Obama administration’s effort to save Detroit’s carmakers and its stated environmental objectives. Just hoping that American drivers will buy the fuel-efficient cars that the government wants Detroit to make is likely to achieve little.

A version of this article appeared in print on January 17, 2009, on page A24 of the New York edition.