Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The only region on the
visible disk is Region 1010 (N19W08) which has been quiet as it
experienced slow decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1010.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (13 - 15
January).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 069
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/01
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales