IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. The
visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A recurrent
enhancement in solar wind speed began late on 25 January. Solar wind
speed increased from 280 km/s to about 380 km/s. A period of
sustained southward Bz between 26/1000 - 1600Z produced the most
disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. Isolated active
periods, mostly at high latitudes, are expected on January 27.
Mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods are expected on January
28 and 29.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 070
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/25/15
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales