From: Worldwatch Institute
Published January 19, 2009 08:46 AM
Time Running Out for Steep Emissions Cuts
State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World
Washington, D.C.-The world will have to reduce emissions more drastically
than has been widely predicted, essentially ending the emission of carbon
dioxide by 2050 to avoid catastrophic disruption to the world's climate,
according to State of the World 2009: Into a Warming World, released today
by the Worldwatch Institute. Yet opportunities abound in renewable energy
and efficiency improvements, agriculture and forestry, and the resilience of
societies for slowing and managing climate change, according to the book's
47 authors.
"We're privileged to live at a moment in history when we can still avert
a climate catastrophe that would leave the planet hostile to human
development and well-being," said Worldwatch Vice President for Programs
Robert Engelman, project co-director for State of the World 2009. "But
there's not much time left. Sealing the deal to save the global climate will
require mass public support and worldwide political will to shift to
renewable energy, new ways of living, and a human scale that matches the
atmosphere's limits."
Into a Warming World, the 26th edition of the State of the World series,
addresses the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as prepare to
adapt to climate change. The Earth's average temperature has already risen
by more than 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) since the
beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century, with much of
that increase attributed to human activities. Nearly 1 degree Celsius of
additional warming may already be in store, based on past emissions of
heat-trapping greenhouse gases that have not yet made their influence felt
on surface temperatures.
A chapter by climate scientist W. L. Hare concludes that in order to avoid a
catastrophic climate tipping point, global greenhouse gas emissions will
need to peak before 2020 and drop 85 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, with
further reductions beyond that date. Emissions of carbon dioxide would
actually need to ”�go negative'-with more being absorbed than emitted-during
the second half of this century. Hare's research finds that even a warming
of 2 degrees Celsius poses unacceptable risks to key natural and human
systems, including significant loss of species, major reductions in
food-production capacity in developing countries, severe water stress for
hundreds of millions of people, and significant sea-level rise and coastal
flooding.
A successful climate strategy will motivate rapid reductions in emissions as
well as major investments in adaptation, with both efforts necessarily
financed mostly by the world's wealthier countries and people, the book
argues. Such a strategy ultimately will also need to address the warming
climate's connection to food production, population growth, and the global
economy. Economists have estimated the cost of avoiding dangerous climate
change at around $1-2.5 trillion a year for decades to come; yet the costs
of not doing so are expected to be far higher.
In order to assess the threat the climate crisis presents-and explore
innovative and practical solutions-Worldwatch enlisted more authors for this
book than for any previous edition of the series, many hailing from the
developing countries most vulnerable to climate change. The resulting
framework offers a roadmap for a world that not only survives climate
change, but emerges more stable, more just, and more prosperous.
At the center of this framework, the book's opening chapter notes ten key
challenges* that must be adopted as part of any successful path to
mitigation and climate change adaptation and resilience. (Resilience refers
to societies' capacity to adapt to dramatic change without suffering
significant reductions in governance, security, prosperity, or quality of
life.)
Simultaneously addressing these interlinked and challenging issues could lay
the groundwork for a world that will not merely bounce back from both the
economic and climate crises, but surge forward. A new U.S. administration
and impending climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 could
finally break the gridlock that has long plagued climate policy.
"We can't afford to let the Copenhagen climate conference fail," said
Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin. "The outcome of this meeting will
be written in the history books-and in the lasting composition of the
world's atmosphere."
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