ICE Brent approaches $70/b on product cracks, renewed confidence



London (Platts)--24Jul2009

Improved product cracks and investor confidence pushed ICE Brent futures
to a three-week high Friday, as front-month contract briefly approached the
$70/barrel mark last seen July 1.

September Brent on the IntercontinentalExchange rose to $69.96/b in early
trading, supported by US product cracks, sources said, as refinery outages and
run cuts created a scarcity of supply that took some traders aback.

"Product cracks have rather crept up on us," said a trader. "They've been
generally weak for a while but now gasoline's up, fuel's been doing ok."

The gasoline crack in Northwest Europe has shown stronger numbers over
the week, rising from plus $7/b to plus $9.40/b according to sources, as a
lack of refinery capacity has created a shortness of supply.

At 1110 GMT, the NYMEX RBOB contract stood at $1.9185/gal, up 0.53
cents/gal. September ICE Brent had fallen back to $69.50/b, with the same
month's WTI contract on NYMEX at $67.37/b.

Added to the product tightness seen in the market, investors have
returned to crude oil, traders said, as the FTSE 100 share index in London
nudged the 2009 high set in early January after two weeks of solid climbs.

That has been mirrored on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which also
hit the same levels seen in January.

"The key upside catalyst for the market was the ferocious rally on Wall
Street, where stocks pushed higher on a slew of quarterly earnings, with the
likes of 3M, AT&T, Ford, and eBay (among others) all beating estimates," said
MG Global's Edward Meir in a report.

US housing data has also boosted oil futures investment, he said, as
sales of existing homes rose in June for their third consecutive increase, the
first time that has happened since 2004.
--Joel Hanley, joel_hanley@platts.com