Is Time Running Out To Seal Post-Kyoto Climate Pact?

Is Time Running Out To Seal Post-Kyoto Climate Pact?

Date: 24-Jul-09
Country: SINGAPORE
Author: David Fogarty, Climate Change Correspondent, Asia

SINGAPORE - Negotiators face a mammoth task to try to agree by the end of the year on the outlines of broader climate pact to replace the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol.

Key issues such as financing climate change adaptation programs in developing nations, transfer of clean-energy technology and disagreements over rich nations' targets to cut planet-warming emissions still need to be resolved.

Following are responses from Howard Bamsey, Australia's special envoy on climate change, on how the negotiations are proceeding as nations step up the momentum to try to seal the pact during a U.N. gathering in Copenhagen in December.

THERE'S LESS THAN FIVE MONTHS TILL COPENHAGEN. IS TIME

RUNNING OUT?

"We've certainly got a long way to go before all the bits of the jigsaw are in place. While some people are now saying we don't expect to fix everything, we're not sorting issues into those we will fix in Copenhagen and those that will come after.

We've just got our heads down and are working as hard as we can with others to complete the task.

"Many countries understand the importance of building confidence. If this is the prisoner's dilemma writ large, overcoming the lack of confidence about the actions of others is pretty fundamental. So an approach which encourages rather than disparages is the right one."

ARE WE LIKELY TO SEE AN AGREEMENT ON HOW FUNDING IS GOING

TO BE RAISED?

"The analysis of the options by individual governments is coming to the point where decisions will soon be able to be taken on that. At the moment, we're talking intensively about options, but there's not yet consensus on which way to go."

THERE'S A POLARISATION BETWEEN RICH AND POOR NATIONS. HOW

TO OVERCOME THIS?

"The analytics are pretty clear. It's in everybody's interest for everybody to deal with this problem. Yes, there will be adjustments that every country will have to make. But in the long run, this goes back to the prisoner's dilemma -- do you want to get out of jail or not? I think we do want to get out. This means we have to find a way of approaching the problem outside the polarized approach you mentioned.

"We recognize that a good agreement to deal with climate change is in our national interest. And perhaps if other countries thought about it in similar terms, many of them would come to the same conclusion that we have, that it's a national interest issue for countries. So if you come at it in that light, it subverts the polarized view of the world that invites a confrontational approach."

WHAT WILL BE A KEY MEASURE OF SUCCESS AT COPENHAGEN?

"A measure of success is how close we come on the questions of targets and commitments, how much action will we generate? And that includes what is required to support that action globally -- financing and technology.

"Adaptation is part of the big picture too and it has to be dealt with effectively for the whole bargain to work. Then I think there's the overarching set of issues around measurement, reporting and verification, how you monitor the action achieved because that's central.

"For us a key measure is: Has this (an agreement in Copenhagen) set us toward achieving a genuine effective global response to global change? And if we're going to achieve that we've got a lot work to do yet."

DEVELOPING NATIONS ARE NOW A LEADING SOURCE OF EMISSIONS.

ARE THEY KEEN TO BE PART OF ANY AGREEMENT?

"Yes, I think so. But developing countries will be very keen to understand that accelerated action on climate change won't compromise their development goals. And I think it's really interesting that in the last few months there's been a focus on the notion of low-carbon development -- there's a lot more attention to this question of planning low-carbon development. It's a way of understanding an alternative path to prosperity."

ARE YOU CONFIDENT OF AN AGREEMENT IN COPENHAGEN?

"I'm personally confident that we'll get an agreement in Copenhagen. But this issue is not going to go away then. We're going to have to continue to develop international cooperation on climate change for many years yet. The science will change, the relationships between countries, the capabilities of countries will change. It's not a case of fixing it once and for all."

(Editing by Alex Richardson)