IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled levels after 13/1200Z. ACE solar
wind data indicated a coronal hole high-speed stream commenced
around 13/1200Z. Velocities gradually increased after 13/1200Z and
reached a peak of 505 km/sec at 13/2029Z. Intermittent periods of
southward IMF Bz occurred beginning around mid-period (minimum -9 nt
at 13/1309Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (14 July).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the balance of
the period (15 - 16 July).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 067
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales