World Dependent On Fossil Fuels For A Century
Date: 16-Jul-09
Country: UK
Author: Christopher Johnson
World Dependent On Fossil Fuels For A Century Photo: Desmond Boylan
An oil rig beside the sea is lit up on the outskirts of
Havana after sunset June 23, 2009.
Photo: Desmond Boylan
LONDON - The world will remain heavily dependent on fossil fuels such as
oil, gas and coal for the rest of this century, despite the best efforts of
governments to move toward renewable energy, an energy economist said on
Wednesday.
Peter Odell, professor of international energy studies at Erasmus
University, Rotterdam, and author of the bestselling World and Oil Power,
said the drive to limit greenhouse gases was likely to be held back by both
technology and economics.
Painting a gloomy picture of the short-term outlook for renewables, Odell
told Reuters that even with a growing global effort to limit carbon dioxide
emissions, the world would still be relying on hydrocarbons by 2100.
"Oil use won't peak until 2050," Odell said in an interview. "It will
decline thereafter but even by 2100 oil supplies will be 20 percent higher
than they were in 2000."
He said alternative, renewable forms of energy would increase 15-fold over
the 21st century to become the biggest single source of energy by the year
2100, but even then alternative energy would still only account for 35-40
percent of the total energy mix.
This would be well short of what environmentalists have said needs to be
accomplished in order to avert the worst effects of global warming, which
many say is due to the burning of fossil fuels.
"Coal, oil and gas will continue to dominate the energy market throughout
the 21st century," he said.
UK GOALS
The British government said on Wednesday it planned to produce 40 percent of
its electricity from low carbon energy by 2020 to help meet legally-binding
targets to cut emissions and tackle climate change.
Unveiling what it hopes will be a map to a low carbon future, Britain aims
to cut UK emissions of greenhouse gases by 34 percent by 2020 from 1990
levels and by at least 80 percent by 2050 to help curb global warming.
The low carbon energy would come from nuclear, wind, solar and marine power,
as well as clean coal, Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband said.
But Odell said those kinds of targets involve very high costs.
"The targets the UK is setting are almost impossible to meet and they are
being developed at a cost that is going to affect consumer prices
significantly," he said.
Odell said global energy demand could increase four-fold this century under
some scenarios to as much as 38 giga (billion) tons of oil equivalent (gtoe)
by 2100 from 9 gtoe.
He forecast world use of hydrocarbons would rise to a peak of 16.5 gtoe by
2070, from 5.8 gtoe in 2000.
(Editing by Michael Kahn)
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