London (Platts)--13Mar2009

Global crude futures held on to the previous day's strong gains Friday,
supported by a softer dollar and firmer equity markets as well as a neutral
reading of the International Energy Agency's report ahead of OPEC's meeting
this weekend.

By 1143 GMT, NYMEX WTI crude for April delivery traded 26 cents higher on
the day at $47.29/barrel, while the equivalent ICE Brent contract was almost
unchanged at $45.04/b.

On Thursday, NYMEX WTI gained $4.70/b while ICE Brent added $3.70/b after
US retail sales figures for February showed a lower-than-expected decline,
thus fanning hopes of an economic recovery.

It also reflected a 3.4% jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which
set the tone for firmer movements at Asian and European equities markets. In
addition, the US dollar came under pressure, with the ICE Dollar Index falling
to beneath 88 points and trading Friday 0.14 points lower at 87.52.

"The market has been very volatile this week. It has been range-bound for
several weeks. I don't think there were any fresh drivers," analyst Mike
Wittner at Societe Generale said.

However, he interpreted last week's data by the US Commodity Futures
Trading Commission as bullish because it had shown that non-commercial
participants held no net length. "This is bullish and leaves room for
non-commercials to re-establish positions," he said.

Analyst Edward Meir at MF Global put emphasis on the effect of OPEC's
Sunday meeting. "We believe that much of the advance was attributable to the
possibility that participants may be sensing that OPEC could consider some
sort of a cut this coming weekend, a stark difference to the feeling a few
days ago when the consensus was centered more on an unchanged reading," he
said.

"Price-wise we are currently at a very important cross-road which would
be a golden opportunity for OPEC to finally turn the market around without
having to make too great of an additional effort," analyst Olivier Jakob at
Petromatrix said. The flattening contango structure of the crude curve and
pressure on product cracks could translate into further draws of crude and
product stocks, he said.

"The outlook from the world supply and demand balances does not provide a
clear picture that a further OPEC cut is actually needed, which also means
that OPEC has the possibility of announcing a cut and take one month to see if
they really want to implement it while they really concentrate on complying to
the production levels set in Oran," the Petromatrix analyst added.

Tanker tracker agency Oil Movements said late Thursday it expected crude
exports from OPEC producers, excluding Angola and Ecuador, to fall to 22.76
million b/d in the four weeks ending March 28, down 350,000 b/d from the
previous four-week period. The estimate marks a decline in OPEC exports of
1.49 million b/d from the same year-ago period.

In its monthly report, the IEA estimated compliance by OPEC producers
with output targets at 80% and cut its outlook for global oil demand in 2009
by a further 270,000 b/d.

On the product market, the ICE gasoil future jumped $20.5 to $388.5/mt,
reflecting the previous evening's crude rally, while NYMEX heating oil futures
were a touch lower at $1.22/gal. RBOB front-month futures were slightly higher
at $1.35/gal.