Majority of Common European Birds Feeling the Heat

CAMBRIDGE, UK, March 9, 2009 (ENS) - Climate change is having an observable impact on birds across Europe, according to a scientific team that has created the world's first indicator of the impacts of climate change on wildlife at a continental scale.

"We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now," said lead author Dr. Richard Gregory from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

Of the 122 common species included in the analysis, 75 percent are predicted to experience declines across their ranges if they continue to respond to climatic warming in the way the models predict, and in the absence of other barriers.

The remaining 25 percent of species are projected to increase.

"The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one," said Dr. Gregory. "Although we have only had a very small actual rise in global average temperature, it is staggering to realize how much change we are noticing in wildlife populations."

"If we don't take our foot off the gas now, our indicator shows there will be many much worse effects to come," he warned. "We must keep global temperature rise below the two degree ceiling; anything above this will create global havoc."

The common snipe is a wetland species projected to fare poorly in a warming world. (Photo credit unknown)

Limiting global warming to no more than 2°Celsius above the temperature in pre-industrial times is necessary to avert the worst consequences of climate change, many scientists agree.

In a study published in the journal "PloS ONE," Dr. Gregory and his team showed a strong link between the observed population change of common and widespread European bird species and the projected range change associated with climate change.

The team compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe. The new indicator already has been included in a high profile set of indicators being used by the European Commission to assess progress towards the target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010.

The paper and the indicator were produced by scientists from the RSPB, Durham University, the University of Cambridge, the European Bird Census Council, the Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, the Czech Society for Ornithology, and Statistics Netherlands.

Dr. Gregory credited skilled amateur birdwatchers across Europe who provided observations to the team through their work with the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme. This project is a result of the common effort and shared goals of BirdLife International and the European Bird Census Council.

Dr. Stephen Willis of Durham University said, "Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarizing the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarizes how biodiversity is changing due to climate change. Unlike the FTSE, which is currently at a six year low, the climate change index has been increasing each year since the mid-1980s, indicating that climate is having an increasing impact on biodiversity."

"Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period," said Willis. "The worry is that the declining group actually comprises 75 percent of the species we studied."

Of those species projected to decline across Europe, the top three worst performers, in order, are: common snipe, Gallinago gallinago; meadow pipit, Anthus pratensis; and brambling, Fringilla montifringilla.

The research shows that the populations of a number of species are projected to increase across Europe. The top three increasing species, in order, are Sardinian warbler, Sylvia melanocephala; subalpine warbler, Sylvia cantillans; and European bee-eater, Merops apiaster.

"This is the first robust indicator of climate change impacts on biodiversity," said Dr. Stuart Butchart, BirdLife International's global research and indicators coordinator.

"There are numerous measures of how our climate is changing, and good evidence that these changes are impacting species and habitats, but to date there has been no simple indicator graph for decision makers to use to monitor these impacts over time," he said. "It provides another example of how information from birds - the best known class of organisms - can be used to monitor our growing footprint on the planet."

Climate change threatens to undermine BirdLife's global mission to conserve wild birds, their habitats and global biodiversity, by working with people towards sustainability in the use of natural resources.

The BirdLife Partnership is now developing a program of work to combat climate change. The message is very simple, says the international organization. "Climate change is global in its causes and consequences and potentially disastrous for life on Earth. We must act together and act now to mitigate against it and adapt to it."

To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.ens-newswire.com