Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet. The Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (17 - 19
March).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 069
Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales